The EUR/USD found a low last Wednesday at 1.0761, right around an uptrend line that is the bottom of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. It led to a one-day bullish reversal on Thursday, followed by a pullback Friday. However, the recent retracement also found support around the 78.6% retracement zone. Together, the above indications point to the potential for a counter-trend rally. Also, notice the potential double bottom pattern in the relative strength index momentum oscillator (RSI).

If a rally gets moving then the 20-Day MA, now at 1.0920, along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0934 are initial upside targets. Further, on the way up the 200-Day MA at 1.0870 needs to be exceeded and it may present enough resistance to stall or reverse the rally. Higher potential targets include the 50% retracement at 1.0988 and the neckline from a double top at 1.1005. Notice that the EUR/USD fell back into the triangle formation last wee and that a breakout above the 200-day line will be close to triggering a second bull breakout of the triangle. Subsequently, the second triangle breakout follows through to the upside eventually or the triangle evolves into a different pattern.

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