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• AUD/USD plunges to the 0.6230 zone during Monday's session, dragged by risk-off tone and strong Greenback.
• Markets brace for Tuesday’s RBA decision, with investors focused on forward guidance and inflation outlook.
• Bearish signals dominate across indicators; resistance builds near key short-term averages.

The AUD/USD pair plunged to its lowest levels in over three weeks during Monday’s North American session, slipping toward the 0.6230 area as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed across the board. The bearish tone was fueled by resurgent US Dollar (USD) strength amid heightened trade tensions and broader risk aversion ahead of “Liberation Day.” With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision looming on Tuesday, investors showed little appetite to hold AUD, especially as technical indicators aligned to the downside.

Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar slumps amid tariff jitters, all eyes on RBA
 

• AUD/USD sank sharply toward the low-0.6200s on Monday as traders dumped risk-sensitive currencies in favor of the safe-haven US Dollar.
• The US Dollar regained ground, climbing back to the 104.40 area on the DXY, bolstered by fears of incoming US tariffs and fragile sentiment.
• Traders remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s “Liberation Day,” when President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal trade measures.
• Rising concern over China’s economic outlook continues to weigh on AUD, given Australia's export reliance on Chinese demand.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintain a patient stance, with policy expected to remain on hold for now despite inflationary risks from trade tensions.
• Investors await Tuesday’s RBA meeting, where the cash rate is likely to remain at 4.10%; forward guidance will be key.
• Recent data in Australia showed easing inflation and weakening labor demand, increasing the likelihood of policy easing in the coming months.
• CFTC data shows speculative short positions on AUD rising to multi-week highs, reflecting deepening bearish sentiment.
• Gold rallied to new record highs above $3,100 as market participants shifted away from equities and crypto into safer assets.
• Commodities-linked currencies like the Aussie remained under pressure despite hopes for further Chinese stimulus.

Technical analysis
 

AUD/USD extended its downside and traded near the 0.6230 region by the time of writing, marking a significant slide during the American session. The pair’s bearish structure remains intact, with momentum indicators confirming the pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a fresh red bar and a negative crossover, while the Awesome Oscillator adds to the bearish signal. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped toward the lower end of neutral territory, suggesting weakening momentum, while the Commodity Channel Index also printed a deeply negative reading.

All major moving averages, including the 10-day EMA and the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, slope downward, reinforcing the bearish setup. Immediate resistance is located near 0.6275, 0.6289, and 0.6290, while support appears limited below 0.6218, with the next key level eyed at 0.6187. Unless a shift in sentiment or policy triggers a turnaround, further losses remain on the table.

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