Bullock Hikes Rates Further

The Australian Dollar has come under heavy selling pressure today despite the RBA hiking rates once again overnight. New RBA governor Bullock lifted rates by a further .25% to record highs of 4.35%, their highest level for 12 years, on the back of Q3 inflation coming in stronger than expected. Looking ahead, Bullock signalled that further tightening was not a done deal and would depend on incoming data and the “evolving assessment of risks.”

Inflation to Stay Higher for Longer

On the inflation front, Bullock noted that while progress had been mode, it was happening at a slower pace than previously expected. As such, Bullock warned that inflation might well stay at higher levels for longer than expected. Indeed, the bank now sees inflation hitting its 2-3% range by the end of 2025.  

Traders Sense RBA Done with Tightening

Despite its warnings over inflation remaining higher for longer, the market reaction suggests a belief that the tightening cycle is most likely over. The sell-off can also be seen as a reflection of growth fears on the back of yet a further hike. With USD catching a fresh bid today, AUDUSD looks likely to remain pressured through the week with focus now shifting to incoming Fed speakers, starting with Barr, Waller and Logan later today.

Technical Views

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AUDUSD

The failure at the .6520 level has seen AUDUSD reversing heavily. Focus now shifts back to a test of the range lows around the .6275 level. Focus remains on the downside now unless bulls can see a break back above the .6681 level and the bear trend line. 

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