SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 4/9/25 at 5456.90= gain 9.52%; Long SPX 4/8/25 at 4982.77.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold long GDX 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.

We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. We do believe a bottom is in (had “selling climax” to “Sigh of Strength” with define bottoms (see volume chart) so eight market goes sideways or trend higher; we believe the sideways comes first. There are three open gaps (see chart above) and its rare for all three will remain open. The bottom window is the 21 day TRIN and next higher window is the 10 day TRIN; both of which never reached 1.20 (1.20 trin shows panic and panic fuel the rallies). Being patience for now.

Coming off the high of April 2 the SPY produced a “Three Gap Play” (TGP). TGP form when there are three gaps in a row and the third gap ends the move (up or down market). After the third gap the market reverses and goes back up (for three gaps down play) and test the first gap (which it did on April 9 (which we played for a gain of 9.52%). Recently the SPY has just produced another “Three Gap Play” to the upside and the third gap appears last Thursday (noted on chart above). The TGP to the upside predict the market will pull back to the first gap which is near the 515 level.

We had a couple of indicators that trigger sell signals near the high for GDX. One was the 80% above the monthly upper Bollinger band for GDX (we presented that study on a previous report) and the one above. The bottom window is the daily GDX/GLD ratio with it Bollinger band; next higher is the daily cumulative A/D with it’s Bollinger band, next higher is cumulative up down volume and it’s Bollinger band and next higher is GDX with it’s Bollinger band. Short term sell signals are triggered when three of the four indicators close above it upper Bollinger band. We circled in red the last time when three of the four indicators closed above it’s upper Bollinger Band. Signals of this type last at least a month to as long as several months. We are thinking the next low may develop in June or July for GDX.

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