It's A Bull Market But Harder To Pick Small Cap Biotech Winners Because Of Volatility

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  • Biotech is in a bull market aș measured by 2023 trends with a double testing of lows on 11/23.
  • Large cap biopharma stocks are strong needed for deal-making that continues to support SMID cap biotech financing and markets.
  • It’s a momentum market creating more volatility with risk of “over-trading”.

We developed this list of small cap “Trades” about a year ago for tracking of the emerging bull market in biotech. Although overall results were profitable it proved to require more frequent trading and portfolio rebalancing than we expected. Some trades were losers from the beginning in 2/23 like QDEL, a bubble stock of the pandemic times. But a buy and hold of the ETF (XBI) up 21.81% over one year and Fund (PRHSX) up 10% are in the money and tracking the bull market. Other SMID picks that outperformed over one year were: CRSP up 64.66%, CRBU up 26.41%, IMTX up 51.29%, and VCEL up 48.29%. We siill like HOLX and EVH for the long term even though they underperformed in 2023. In general, one should look at performance since 11/23 as the low point of the current bull market with double testing of lows twice in 6/22 and 11/23.


Here is our year-end 2023 take on SMID cap performanceMeanwhile, the XLV Healthcare ETF is up 15.89% over one year, up 10.89% over 6 months running concurrently with the biotech bull market since November.

Within the healthcare sector, MedTech stocks are beginning to outperform with the IHI up 8.62% YTD and 13.17% over one year.

Time to think about your strategy: Are you a Trader or Investor?

Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to roll up over 4% to the 71,000 level. Look for sector rotation this week.

LONG: XBI, PRHSX: long all stocks below unless noted. Not in RXRX, ROIV.

Company Ticker $   P % week P 4 wks YTD %   3/9/2024 YTD  short term trend
                    P %  
                         
Acumen Therap ABOS     5.29   3.57 51.27 -33.89   4.37 13.8 u
Catalyst Pharma CPRX NEW   16.1 19.62 16.58 19.62 -10.86   16.25 -3.33 u
Caribou Biosci CRBU NEW   6.29 20.55 6.17 8.44 -0.175   7.42 29.49 u
CorMedix CRMD NEW       3.9       3.68 -2.13
CRSPR Therap CRSP 49.61 -25 55.27 4.72 63.67 -9.68 56.63   78.92 26.07
Cryoport CYRX 21.75 -42.34 25.24 9.41 16.09 14.76 -7.26   16.85 8.78 u
Denali DNLI NEW 2/27 22           20.95 (2,47)
Exelixis EXEL NEW 3/4 22.25           22.21 -7.42
Evolent Health EVH 30.83 13.74 31.96 2.21 32.08 8.56 14.25   34.32 3.91 u H
Geron GERN 3.19 9.24 3.22 3.59 2.29 17.44 -5.37   2.25 6.64
Hologic HOLX 79.66 22.41 84.68 2.28 71.04 -1.58 -5.04   77.05 7.84 u H
Illumina ILMN NEW       141       135.43 -2.74 out, trade
Immatics IMTX     9.3   9.9 20.88 13.66   12.27 16.52 u
Pacific Biosci PACB 11.29 55.68 11.58 -1.7 8.59 28.4 5   4.43 -54.84 d
Quidel/Ortho QDEL 88.13 -11.56 89.7 3.93 73.98 7.19 -13.65   46.26 -37.23 out
Recursion Pharm RXRX NEW       10.75       11.19 13.48 d
Roivant ROIV NEW       11.4       10.68 -4.9 d
Supernus SUPN 40.3 12.3 41.61 2.29 29.23 6.04 -18.05   31.07 7.36 u
Twist Biosci TWST   12/2 18   3.76 54.39 34.03   37.57 1.93
10x Genomics TXG   12/2 47.84   56.58 30.52 55.27   48.45 -28.86 d
Vericel VCEL     31   34.75 -2.09 31.93   49.2 d u
Veracyte VCYT 24.89 39.43 26.67 2.46 28.27 8.23 19.13   22.72 -17.41 d
                         
SPDR Biotech XBI 86.99 14.75 90.39 1.12 87.62 20.36 5.57   98.95 4.32 u
                         
                    P 2/18 %YTD  
wildcard                        
ArkGenomics ARKG     35.28   32.81 18.88 16.22   30.37 -2.44 trde
                         
longs                        
Becton-Dickinson BDX old pick add?             236.27 -1.61 H
Cerevel CERE acquired ABBV             42.7 sold  
Cytokinetics CYTK in play missed             85.6 out  
                         
            12/24/23            
iShares CoreS&P IJR         108.34 12.96 14.48   108.01
iShares Russell IWM         201.48 13.11 15.55   201.66 3.05
iShares BIO IBB         133.77 12.68 -1.89   138.65 2.06  
NASDAQ-100 QQQ         408.38 4.7 53.36   439.02 7.02 u
HealthcareSPDR XLV         135.02 3.52   146.43 7.37 u
                         
T.RowePrice PRHSX         86.84 3.67 -3.32   94.35 7.34 u H
iShares MED Dev IHI         53.65 7.34 2.05   58.62 8.62 u

More By This Author:

Healthcare Stocks Are Looking Better But What About Biotech?
Healthcare And Life Science Funds And ETFs Performance 2023-2024
Biotech And Medtech Portfolio Notes On A Fed Day

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