We now have a stock market melt-up alongside a government melt-down--and financial markets could not care less. In fact, the stock market can hardly get more bullish with the long-term, mid-term, and short-term uptrends each flashing green and pointing upward. Still, I cannot help checking my peripheral vision for signs of caution. This week’s key reason for caution comes courtesy of the volatility index (VIX). The VIX has a bottoming pattern as it hugs ever more closely to its level from right before the tariff drama, trauma, and noise. In other words, volatility looks ready for another surge. Given October is the last of the stock market’s most dangerous months of the year, one more VIX pop seems both appropriate and timely. Yet, a convincing catalyst remains elusive. Perhaps some signal actually emerges that suggests this latest government shutdown could get worse than the last one.

In the related video below, I walk through why I’m still wary under a 70% AT50 threshold even as price keeps grinding up, how October’s buyable drawdowns fit my playbook, and why a cupping volatility profile can pop and fade quickly. Then I break down the indices—SPY, COMPQ, IWM—before diving into equities where I saw actionable setups and lessons: IONQ’s clean 20DMA bounce, META’s short-term bearish turn, RDDT’s sentiment flip, HOOD’s picture-perfect breakout, BYND’s gap-down rebound, and AI leaders from VRT to MU while I keep tabs on NVDA and stay patient on DELL, WIX, HUBS, and TEAM. I also note ripple effects from FICO across TRU and EFX and why I’m staying disciplined on my triggers.

Be careful out there!

More By This Author:

What Happened In The Housing Market? – Rate Cut Fail
Market Breadth Wavering Under The Threat Of Government Shutdown
Financing Costs Do Not Impact Calculated Inflation