How Have Market Expectations Of The Fed Funds Changed?
Comparing CME implied Fed funds for the March 22 and May 3 meetings shows a downshift, which seems attributable to developments surrounding SVB (SIVB).
(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (black), CME futures implied as of 3/13 12:20CT (red square), as of 3/10 (pink square). Source: CME Fedwatch, accessed 3/13.
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