Welcome to day 2 of the federal government shutdown, which means that today’s scheduled non-farm payrolls report for September will be postponed until the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopens. The timing for a data blackout is especially problematic because uncertainty is increasing about the economy. The already-challenging environment for setting monetary policy, due to the still-evolving impact from tariffs, is making the Federal Reserve’s job even harder, a scenario that lifts the possibility of a policy mistake. In the current climate, published data from private sources and Federal Reserve banks, which are still operating, are increasingly valuable. Here’s a quick look at some key economic updates published so far this week as the data void for official reports continues.

The Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index rose for the week through September 27, remaining in a middling range relative to the year to date. The 2.40% reading – an estimate of the four-quarter change in GDP — offers a moderately upbeat profile of economic activity at the end of last month.
 

The current estimate of third-quarter GDP from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model also paints an upbeat profile (as of Oct. 1). Output is expected to rise 3.8%, matching the strong increase reported for Q2.
 

An estimate of non-farm employment for September published on Thursday by Revelio Labs, a data analytics firm, indicates that hiring picked up last month, albeit from a low level. Hiring increased 60,100 in September, the biggest monthly gain of the year.
 

By contrast, the ADP Employment Report published earlier in the week paints a darker picture for payrolls. Companies cut jobs for a second straight month in August, according to this estimate. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
 

Job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020. “Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm.
 

The overall takeaway: Recession risk still looks low, but a slowing labor market could be a headwind for the fourth quarter. The loss of government economic reports will only complicate the analysis and create additional uncertainty. For now, a wary optimism prevails, but it will fade with each passing day that the shutdown rolls on.

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