The Federal government shut down for the first time since 2019. The odds still look low for a political compromise in Congress and so it’s unclear how long the shutdown will last. The Senate is expected to vote again today, likely on the same two measures that failed Tuesday. The betting market Kalshi is currently pricing in 79% odds that the shut down will last more than 5 day.

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The possible delay of key US economic data due to the government shutdown puts the Federal Reserve in a precarious position as tries to make policy decisions during a period of macro uncertainty. This Friday’s payrolls report is expected to be delayed due to shutdown, the first of several postponed releases if government offices remain closed.

US job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, the Labor Dept. reports. Following the government shutdown that starts today, this report may be the last key economic update in the days or weeks ahead.

US home price growth fell in July for a fifth straight month, based on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The annual 1.7% rise marks the smallest annual increase since July 2023.’

Consumer confidence edged down in September, the Conference Board reported. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, the organization’s senior economist for global indicators.

US fiscal risk remains in line with the past several years, according to a model run by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm. The main outliers warning of trouble at the moment: a surge in the price of gold and the August update on the federal government’s surplus/deficit via the Treasury statements (the budget shortfall fell to its deepest shade of red ink in nine months).

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