Macro Briefing - Thursday, Oct. 2
US companies reduced payrolls for a second straight month in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. The data offers a n ew warning sign for the labor market outlook. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
As the US government shutdown continues for a second day, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought said the Trump administration will start firing federal employees. Roughly 750,000 federal workers are expected to be furloughed, and some fired, by the administration.
US third-quarter economic growth is expected to remain strong, according to Thursday’s update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. The current estimate indicates output increasing 3.8% in Q3, matching the strong increase in Q2.
Supreme Court allows Fed Governor Lisa Cook to retain her job pending oral arguments in January on whether President Donald Trump has legal cause to fire her. Trump claims that Cook committed mortgage fraud as his reason for firing her from the seven-member board.
Trump says he’ll confront China over its decision to stop buying US soybeans. As a response to US tariffs, China hasn’t booked a single cargo of soybeans as of Sept. 18, weeks into the new marketing season — a first instance of no purchases since 1999.
ISM Manufacturing Index continued to indicate contraction for the sector in September. The index edged higher last month, but remains below the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from decline for overall business activity in manufacturing.
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