As the following table and chart illustrate, the US job market posted a very strong 224,000 employment rebound in June. And over the past three months, job gains have averaged 171,000 per month.

In other words, we can conclude from the latest numbers that the current pace of job creation has slowed from last year, but nonetheless, US job growth in the US is still quite robust.

In fact, slower jobs growth is not all that surprising because the economy’s labor market has been very tight for at least two years.

Even though the unemployment rate rose slightly in June to 3.7% compared to a 3.6% rate in May, it is at near record lows. The broader U6 unemployment measure, which accounts for unemployed and unemployed, also rose marginally in June from its lower May level.

In June the goods industries created 37,000 new jobs, of which 17,000 were in manufacturing and 21,000 were in construction. The service industries created 174,000 jobs in June, virtually double the previous month’s job expansion.

Another sign that the labor market is tight can be seen in the fact that the labor force participation rate rose to 62.9% in June versus 62.8% in May.

Unfortunately missing from this otherwise rosy picture is any sign of a real recovery in wage earnings. In June average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, and wages were only 3.1% higher than a year earlier.

We know that Federal Reserve policymakers track these monthly jobs numbers very closely. As well, President Donald Trump has been critical of the Fed, questioning its motives and understanding of the economy. Trump continues to call for cuts in interest rates to rocket fuel the economy.

Nonetheless, despite outside political pressures and considerable international economic uncertainty, the continuing strong job market as reflected in the June numbers dramatically lowers the chance that Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its July 30-31 FOMC meeting.

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