Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 24 And 31
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of October 24 |
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October 24 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
51.8 |
52.0 |
51.0 |
PMI Services Flash Index |
49.7 |
49.3 |
49.2 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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October 25 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - August |
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Twenty City M/M |
-0.7% |
-0.8 |
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Twenty City M/M - SA |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
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Twenty City Y/Y |
14.2 |
16.1 |
14.4 |
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FHFA House Price Index - August |
-0.7% |
-0.6 |
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Consumer Confidence |
105.7 |
108.0 |
106.5 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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October 26 |
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International Trade in Goods - September (a) |
-85.3 |
-87.3 |
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Wholesale Inventories - September (a) |
1.2% |
1.3 |
1.1 |
New Home Sales - September |
610K |
685 |
590 |
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October 27 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
225K |
214 |
223 |
Durable Goods Sales - September |
0.5% |
-0.2 |
0.5 |
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GDP - Q3 (a) |
2.2% |
-0.6 |
1.8 |
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October 28 |
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Employment Cost Index - Q3 |
1.2% |
1.3 |
1.2 |
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
5.0 |
5.1 |
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Personal Income - September |
0.4% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r) |
59.8 |
59.8 |
59.8 |
Pending Home Sale Index - September |
87.4 |
88.4 |
84`0 |
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Week of October 31 |
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Chicago PMI |
50.0 |
45.7 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
-10.0 |
-17.2 |
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November 1 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - October |
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ISM (Mfg) - October |
50.7 |
50.9 |
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Construction Spending - September |
-0.4 |
-0.7 |
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JOLTS - September |
9.750M |
10.053 |
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November 2 |
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Auto Sales* - October |
13.5M |
13.5 |
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Car Sales |
2.9 |
2.9 |
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Truck Sales |
10.6 |
10.6 |
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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ADP Employment Report - October |
200K |
208 |
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FMOC |
3.875% |
3.125 |
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November 3 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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Productivity - Q3 (p) |
0.7% |
-4.1 |
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Unit Labor Costs |
3.8 |
10.2 |
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International Trade - September |
-$65.8B |
-67.4 |
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PMI Services Index |
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ISM Services - October |
56.5 |
56.7 |
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Factory Orders - September |
0.6% |
0.0 |
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Durable Goods Orders |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0,2 |
0.2 |
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Novenber 4 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - October |
225K |
263 |
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Private |
200 |
288 |
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Manufacturing |
10 |
22 |
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Unemployment |
3.6% |
3.5 |
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Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0,3 |
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More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 17 And 24
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 10 And 17
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 3 And 10
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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