Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 3 And 10

 

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

 
 
 
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 3
 
 
 
October 3
 
 
 
PMI Manufacturing Index
51.5
51.8
 
 
 
 
 
ISM (Mfg) - Sept
52.4
52.8
52.8
ISM Prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Construction Spending - August
-0.2%
-0.4
-0.3
 
 
 
 
Auto Sales - September
13.4M
13.2
 
Car Sales
2.9
2.9
 
Truck Sales
10.5
10.3
 
 
 
 
 
October 4
 
 
 
Factory Orders - August
0.0%
1.0
0.3
Durable Goods Orders 
-0.2
-0.1
 
Nondurable Goods Orders 
0.2
-1.9
 
 
 
 
 
JOLTS - August
11.000M
11.239
10.650
 
 
 
 
October 5
 
 
 
International Trade - August
-$67.3B
-70.6
-68.0
ADP Employment Report - September 
220K
132
205
 
 
 
 
PMI Services Index
49.3
49.3
 
ISM Services - September
56.5
56.9
56.0
 
 
 
 
October 6
 
 
 
Initial Unemployment Claims
203K
193
203
 
 
 
 
October 7
 
 
 
Nonfarm Payrolls - September
250K
315
250
Private
220
308
 
Manufacturing
20
22
20
Unemployment
3.6%
3.7
3.7
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.3%
0.3
0.3
 
 
 
 
Wholesale Inventories - August
1.3%
1.3
1.3
Consumer Credit - August
25K
23.8
25.0
 
 
 
 
Week of October 10
 
 
 
October 11
 
 
 
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - September
91.8
91.8
 
 
 
 
 
October 12
 
 
 
Producer Price Index - September
0.3%
-0.1
0.2
PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)
0.4
0.2
 
 
 
 
 
Treasury Budget - September
-$25.0B
-219.6
 
 
 
 
 
October 13
 
 
 
Consumer Price Index - September
0.2%
0.1
0.2
Core CPI
0.4
0.6
0.5
 
 
 
 
October 14
 
 
 
Retail Sales - September
0.2%
0.3
0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.1
-0.3
0.0
 
 
 
 
Export Prices -  September
-1.2%
-1.6
 
Import Prices
-1.2
-1.0
-1.2
 
 
 
 
Business Inventories - August
0.9%
0.6
 
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)
58.8
58.6
59.0
 
 
 
  

More By This Author:

Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 26 And Oct. 3
The US Must Take The Lead On Globalization If It Hopes To Compete With China
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 19 And 26

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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