Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 17 & 24

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
       
    Prior  
  Forecast Observation  
Week of June 17      
June 17      
NY Fed Manufacturing Index -12.0 -15.6  
       
June 18      
Retail Sales - May 0.3% 0.0  
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.3 0.2  
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas 0.4 -0.1  
       
Industrial Production - June 0.1% 0.0  
Capacity Utilization 78.4 78.4  
Manufacturing 0.1 -0.3  
       
Business Inventories - April 0.3% -0.1  
       
June 19      
NAHB Index - June 48 45  
       
June 20      
Initial Unemployment Claims 240K 242  
       
Housing Starts - May 1.400M 1.360  
Building Permits 1.460 1.440  
       
Philadelphia Fed Survey Index 4.5 4.5  
Current Account - Q1 -$205.5B -194.8  
       
June 21      
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 51.0 51.3  
PMI Services Flash Index 54.8 54.8  
       
Leading Indicators  -0.3% -0.6  
Existing Home Sales - May 3.890M 4.140  
       
Week of June 24      
June 24      
Dallas Fed Index -14.5 -19.4  
       
June 25      
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May -0.25 -0.23  
       
S&P Case/Shiller Index - April      
Twenty City M/M 1.2% 1.6  
Twenty City M/M - SA 0.3 0.3  
Twenty City Y/Y 7.0 7.4  
       
FHFA Home Price Index - April 0.5% 0.1  
Consumer Confidence 100.0 102.0  
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -3.0 0  
       
June 26      
New Home Sales - May 650K 634  
       
June 27      
Initial Unemployment Claims      
Durable Goods Orders - May 0.7% 0.6  
International Trade in Goods - May -96.4 99.4  
Wholesale Inventories - May (a) 0.1% 0.1  
       
GDP - Q1 (f) 1.3% 1.3  
       
Pending Home Sales Index - May 75.3 72.3  
       
June 28      
Personal Income - May 0.4% 0.3  
Personal Spending 0.4 0.2  
       
Chicago PMI - June 40.0 35.4  
   

 


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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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