Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 19 And 26

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 19

June 19

NAHB Index - June

50

50

52

June 20

Housing Starts - May

1.410M

1.401

1.401

Building Permits

1.435

1.416

1.425

June 22

Current Account - Q1

-$216.2

-206.8

216.9

Initial Unemployment Claims

255K

260

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.15

0.07

Leading Indicators 

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

Existing Home Sales - May

4.17K

4.280

4.25

June 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

49.5

48.4

48.3

PMI Services Flash Index

55.0

54.9

54.0

Week of June 26

June 26

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

-20

-29.1

June 27

Durable Goods Orders - May

-1.2%

1.1

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

1.0%

1.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.5

0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

-2.3

-1.1

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.5%

0.6

Consumer Confidence

103.5

102.3

New Home Sales - May

655K

683

June 28

International Trade in Goods - May

-$94.0B

-98.8

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

-0.1%

-0.1

June 29

GDP - Q1 (f)

1.4%

1.3

Pending Home Sales Index - May

78.0

78.9

June 30

Personal Income - May

0.4%

0.4

Personal Spending

0.2

0.8

Chicago PMI - June

43.0

40.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

63.9

63.9

Week of July 3

July 3

ISM (Mfg) - June

47.4

46.9

Construction Spending - May

0.4%

1.2

Auto Sales - June

15.4M

15.0

Car Sales

3.2

3.1

Truck Sales

12.2

11.9

July 5

Factory Orders - May

-0.6%

0.4

Durable Goods Orders 

-1.2

1.1

Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.2

-0.1

July 6

ADP Employment Report - June

253K

278

International Trade - May

-$69.8B

-74.6

ISM Services - June

50.5

50.3

JOLTS - May

10.000M

10.103

July 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

293K

339

Private

253

283

Manufacturing

5

-2

Unemployment

3.6%

3.7

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.4%

0.3