Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 31 And Aug. 7
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| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of July 31 | |||
| July 31 | |||
| Chicago PMI - July | 42.5 | 41.5 | 43.0 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -22.5 | -23.2 | |
| August 1 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - July | 49.0 | 49.0 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - July | 46.4 | 46.0 | 46.8 |
| Construction Spending - June | 0.6% | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| JOLTS - June | 9.650M | 10 | 9.620 |
| Auto Sales* - July | 15.9M | 15.7 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.1 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.7 | 12.6 | |
| August 2 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - July | 160K | 497 | 188 |
| August 3 | |||
| Productivity - Q2 (p) | 2.3% | -2.1 | 2.0 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 230K | 221 | 227 |
| PMI Services Index | 52.4 | 52.4 | |
| ISM Services - July | 53.0 | 53.9 | 53.0 |
| Factory Orders - June | 2.4% | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Durable Goods Orders | 4.7 | 1.8 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.0 | -1.2 | |
| August 4 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - July | 180K | 209 | 200 |
| Private | 160 | 149 | 175 |
| Manufacturing | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Unemployment | 3.6% | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Average Workweek | 34.4HR | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Week of August 7 | |||
| August 7 | |||
| Consumer Credit - June | $15.0B | 7.3 | |
| August 8 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July | 91.0 | 91.0 | |
| International Trade - June | -$64.9B | -69.0 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - June | -0.3% | -0.3 | |
| August 10 | |||
| Consumer Price Index - July | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| CPI Core | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| Treasury Budget - July | -$95.0B | -227.8 | |
| August 11 | |||
| Producer Price Index - July | 0.2% | 0.1 | |
| PPI less food energy and trade services | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p) | 71.6 | 71.6 | |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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