Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 30

January 30

Dallas Fed Index - January

-15

-18.8

January 31

Employment Cost Index - Q4

1.2%

1.2

1.1

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

5.2

5.0

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

-0.8%

-0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

6.8

8.6

6.9

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

-0.5%

0.0

Chicago PMI - January

45.5

44.9

44.9

Consumer Confidence Index

108.3

108.3

109.0

February 1

ADP Employment Survey - January

190K

186

170

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

46.8

46.8

ISM (Mfg) - January

48.1

48.4

48.0

Construction Spending - December

-0.4%

0.2

-0.1

JOLTS - December

10.300M

10.458

10.200

Auto Sales - January

14.5M

13.3

Car Sales

3.2

2.8

Truck Sales

11.3

10.6

FMOC

4.63%

4.375

February 2

Initial Unemployment Claims

195K

186

200

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

2.7%

0.8

2.4

Unit Labor Cost

1.3

2.4

1.5

Factory Orders - December

3.0%

-1.8

2.3

Durable Goods Orders

5.6

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.4

-1.4

February 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - January 

190K

223

185

Private

170

220

168

Manufacturing

15

8.0

15

Unemployment

3.6%

3.5

3.6

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.3

0.3

PMI Services Index - January

46.6

46.6

ISM Services - January

50.7

49.6

50.3

Week of  February 6

February 7

International Trade - December

-$69.3B

-61.5

-69.0

Consumer Credit - December

$27B

27

24

February 8

Wholesale Inventories (f)

0.1%

0.1

February 10

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

64.9

64.9

65.0

Treasury Budget - January

$110.0B

-85.0