Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 12 And 19
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
| Prior | |||
| Forecast | Observation | ||
| Week of January 12 | |||
| January 13 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Confidence - December | |||
| Consumer Price Index - December | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| CPI Y/Y | 2.6 | 2.7 | |
| Core CPI | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| Core Y/Y | 2.7 | 2.6 | |
| New Home Sales - October | 725K | 800 | |
| New Home Sales - November | 725 | ||
| Treasury Budget - December | -$180.0B | -173.3 | |
| January 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - November | 0.3% | 0.0 | |
| Retail Sales, ex autos | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline | 0.3 | 0.5 | |
| Producer Price Index - October | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Producer Price Index - November | 0.3% | ||
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.2 | ||
| Current Account - Q3 | -$258.5B | -251.3 | |
| Existing Home Sales - December | 4.200M | 4.130 | |
| January 15 | |||
| Philadelphia Fed Index | -4.0 | -10.2 | |
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January | 1.0 | -3.9 | |
| Export Prices - October | -0.2% | 0.0 | |
| Import Prices | -0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Ex Petroleum | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Export Prices - November | -0.2% | ||
| Import Prices | -0.2 | ||
| Ex Petroleum | 0.0 | ||
| Petroleum | |||
| January 16 | |||
| Industrial Production - December | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 76.0 | 76.0 | |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Week of January 19 | |||
| January 19 | |||
| January 20 | |||
| NAHB Index - January | 40 | 39 | |
| Construction Spending - September | 0.0% | 0.2 | |
| Construction Spending - October | 0.2 | ||
| Pending Home Sales - December | 78.7 | 79.2 | |
| January 22 | |||
| GDP - Q3 (f) | 4.3% | 4.3 | |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 3.8 | 3.7 | |
| PCE | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| PCE Deflator | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| PCE Core Deflator | 2.9 | 2.9 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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