Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Dec. 29 And Jan. 5
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| Week of December 29 | |||
| December 29 | |||
| Pending Home Sale Index - November | 77.0 | 76.3 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -5.0 | -10.4 | |
| December 30 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - October | |||
| Twenty City M/M | -0.5% | -0.5 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 1.1 | 1.4 | |
| FHFA Housing Price Index - Oct | 0.2% | 0.0 | |
| Chicago PMI | 39.0 | 36.3 | |
| December 31 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 218K | 214 | |
| January 2 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - December | 51.8 | 51.8 | |
| Week of January 5 | |||
| January 5 | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - December | 48.6 | 48.2 | |
| Auto Sales - December | 15.7M | 15.6 | |
| Car Sales | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Truck Sales | 13.2 | 13.1 | |
| January 6 | |||
| PMI Services - December | 52.9 | 52.9 | |
| January 7 | |||
| ADP Employment - December | 45 | -32 | |
| Factory Orders - October | -0.9% | 0.2 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -2.2 | 0.5 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.3 | -0.1 | |
| Factory Orders - November | 0.4% | ||
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.5 | ||
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.3 | ||
| ISM Services - December | 51.0 | 50.7 | |
| JOLTS - Nov | 7.500M | 7.670 | |
| January 8 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 3.3% | 3.3 | |
| Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary | 5.2% | 3.3 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | -0.4 | 1.0 | |
| International Trade - October | -$58.8B | -52.8 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - October | 0.3% | 0.5 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - November | 0.3% | ||
| Consumer Credit - November | $10.5B | 9.2 | |
| January 9 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - December | 40K | ` | |
| Private | 45 | 69 | |
| Core Private* | |||
| Manufacturing | -5 | -5 | |
| Unemployment | 4.5% | 4.6 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.1 | |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| Housing Starts - October | 1.325M | 1.307 | |
| Building Permits | 1.345 | 1.312 | |
| Housing Starts - November | 1.325M | ||
| Building Permits | 1.350 | ||
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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