Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Dec. 12 And 19
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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data
|
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of December 12 |
|
|
|
December 12 |
|
|
|
Treasury Budget - November |
-$200.0B |
-87.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 13 |
|
|
|
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November |
90.8 |
91.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer Price Index - November |
0.4% |
0.4 |
0.3 |
Core CPI |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
December 14 |
|
|
|
Export Prices - November |
-0.9% |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
Import Prices |
-0.9 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
Import Prices, ex-Energy |
-0.9 |
-0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
FMOC |
4.375% |
3.875% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 15 |
|
|
|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
230K |
230 |
230 |
|
|
|
|
|
Retail Sales - November |
0.4% |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.4 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
|
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
-9.7 |
-19.4 |
-12.0 |
NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
2.0 |
4.5 |
-1.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial Production - November |
0.3% |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
Capacity Utilization |
79.8 |
79.9 |
79.8 |
Manufacturing |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Business Inventories - October |
0.4% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
December 16 |
|
|
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
45.7 |
46.2 |
46.5 |
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
47.7 |
47.8 |
47.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Week of December 19 |
|
|
|
December 19 |
|
|
|
NAHB Index |
35 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 20 |
|
|
|
Housing Starts - November |
1.415M |
1.425 |
|
Building Permits |
1.515 |
1.526 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 21 |
|
|
|
Current Account - Q3 |
-$253.0B |
-251.1 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
98.2 |
100.2 |
|
Existing Home Sales - November |
4.030M |
4.430 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 22 |
|
|
|
GDP - Q3 (f) |
2.9% |
2.9 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November |
-1.0 |
-0.5 |
|
Leading Indicators - Nobember |
-0.4% |
-0.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 23 |
|
|
|
Durable Goods Orders - November |
0.2 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personal Income - November |
0.4% |
0.7 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.8 |
|
| New Home Sales - November | 615K | 632 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r) | 59.1 | 59.1 |
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Dec. 5 And 12
Economic Data Forecasts For The Week Of Nov. 28
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 21 And 28
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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