Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Aug. 1 And Aug. 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

 
 
 
 
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of August 1
 
 
 
August 1
 
 
 
PMI Manufacturing Index - July
52.3
52.3
 
ISM (Mfg) - July
52.5
53.0
52.0
 
 
 
 
Construction Spending - June
0.3%
-0.1
0.2
 
 
 
 
August 2
 
 
 
JOLTS - June
11.000M
11.254
11.000
 
 
 
 
Auto Sales - July
13.5M
13.0
 
Car Sales
2.8
2.7
 
Truck Sales
10.7
10.3
 
 
 
 
 
August 3
 
 
 
ADP Employment Report - July
220K
128
 
 
 
 
 
PMI Services Index
47.0
47.0
 
ISM Services - July
53.0
55.3
53.5
 
 
 
 
Factory Orders - June
1.2%
1.6
1.2
Durable Goods Orders 
1.9
0.8
 
Nondurable Goods Orders 
0.5
2.3
 
 
 
 
 
August 4
 
 
 
Initial Unemployment Claims
256K
256
255
International Trade - June
-$78.5B
-85.4
-80.1
 
 
 
 
August 5
 
 
 
Nonfarm Payrolls - July
250K
372
250
Private
220
381
230
Manufacturing
20
29
15
Unemployment
3.6%
3.6
3.6
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.3%
0.3
0.3
 
 
 
 
Consumer Credit - June
$23.0B
22.3
24.0
 
 
 
 
Week of August 8
 
 
 
August 9
 
 
 
NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July
89.5
89.5
 
 
 
 
 
Productivity - Q2 (p)
-2.2%
-7.3
 
Unit Labor Costs
6.7
12.6
 
 
 
 
 
August 10
 
 
 
Consumer Price Index - July
0.3%
1.3
 
CPI Core
0.7
0.7
 
 
 
 
 
Wholesale Inventories - June
1.9%
1.9
 
Treasury Budget - July
-$162.0B
-88.8
 
 
 
 
 
August 11
 
 
 
Producer Price Index - July
0.3%
0.8
 
PPI less food energy and trade services
0.5
0.6
 
 
 
 
 
August 12
 
 
 
Export Prices -  July
-1.4%
0.7
 
Import Prices
-1.3
0.2
 
Import Prices, ex-Petroleum
0.0
-0.4
 
 
 
 
 
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)
51.5
51.5
 
 

More By This Author:

Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 25 And August 1
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Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 18 And July 25

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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