Speculators Raise Euro Speculator Bets While British Pound Bets Rebound

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart


Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart


The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.

First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.

Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.

So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.

In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.


Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days

The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.

The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.

The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)



Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (27 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.8 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (20.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (72.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (71.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.7 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.0 percent)



Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (26 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-27.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-9.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.3 percent)
Bitcoin (26.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.


Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.3 39.0 14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 60.0 21.5 10.8
– Net Position: -5,988 5,060 928
– Gross Longs: 11,359 11,278 4,046
– Gross Shorts: 17,347 6,218 3,118
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 96.3 43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 0.7 23.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 118,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.


Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 54.8 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 75.0 5.6
– Net Position: 118,745 -166,431 47,686
– Gross Longs: 252,719 452,297 94,142
– Gross Shorts: 133,974 618,728 46,456
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.0 24.5 75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.7 3.7 -19.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.0 47.2 14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 37.8 12.9
– Net Position: -25,185 20,792 4,393
– Gross Longs: 81,303 103,816 32,702
– Gross Shorts: 106,488 83,024 28,309
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.4 72.5 71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.8 26.6 -12.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.2 40.1 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 63.0 9.8
– Net Position: 77,581 -79,882 2,301
– Gross Longs: 168,363 139,967 36,614
– Gross Shorts: 90,782 219,849 34,313
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.0 30.8 49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.6 12.3 -23.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 75.4 16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.2 32.3 25.6
– Net Position: -27,278 34,522 -7,244
– Gross Longs: 6,459 60,354 13,224
– Gross Shorts: 33,737 25,832 20,468
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.8 48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.3 22.4 -36.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.6 74.8 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.8 29.1 14.2
– Net Position: -93,079 100,818 -7,739
– Gross Longs: 19,028 165,165 23,694
– Gross Shorts: 112,107 64,347 31,433
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.8 55.8 21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.7 13.8 -30.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 66.9 12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 68.1 16.7 11.7
– Net Position: -94,887 93,396 1,491
– Gross Longs: 31,668 124,358 23,253
– Gross Shorts: 126,555 30,962 21,762
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 4.0 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.0 85.6 53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.6 15.0 -12.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 53.5 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.9 42.9 11.0
– Net Position: -4,070 5,069 -999
– Gross Longs: 12,986 25,428 4,229
– Gross Shorts: 17,056 20,359 5,228
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 39.8 40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 13.5 -38.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.5 37.9 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.9 79.7 2.0
– Net Position: 64,525 -67,928 3,403
– Gross Longs: 91,974 61,700 6,638
– Gross Shorts: 27,449 129,628 3,235
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.7 39.3 41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.8 -4.1 -8.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 34.5 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 66.1 1.0
– Net Position: 30,410 -33,494 3,084
– Gross Longs: 61,948 36,559 4,144
– Gross Shorts: 31,538 70,053 1,060
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 29.7 38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.1 15.8 -6.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.4 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.8 2.7 3.6
– Net Position: -1,200 758 442
– Gross Longs: 23,064 1,552 1,493
– Gross Shorts: 24,264 794 1,051
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 73.5 60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.2 -25.0 -5.9

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets Rise To 3-Month High, British Pound Bets Drop
Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Silver, Sugar & 5-Year Top Bullish & Bearish Positions
Currency Speculators Cut Their British Pound Bets To 22-Week Low

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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