Mexican Peso Speculator Bets Rise To 3-Month High, British Pound Bets Drop
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop
Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.
Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.
On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.
Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.
Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain
Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.
The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.
Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.
Currencies Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)
Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.
The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.9 | 39.4 | 15.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 61.3 | 21.6 | 9.6 |
| – Net Position: | -7,030 | 5,365 | 1,665 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,399 | 11,847 | 4,540 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 18,429 | 6,482 | 2,875 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 97.1 | 53.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.2 | -2.9 | 32.4 |
Euro Currency Futures:
The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.2 | 55.4 | 11.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.1 | 75.4 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | 115,959 | -163,545 | 47,586 |
| – Gross Longs: | 247,357 | 453,569 | 92,215 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 131,398 | 617,114 | 44,629 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.9 | 25.5 | 74.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.8 | 0.3 | -11.8 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.8 | 52.8 | 14.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 48.0 | 37.0 | 13.9 |
| – Net Position: | -33,303 | 32,643 | 660 |
| – Gross Longs: | 65,635 | 108,854 | 29,306 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 98,938 | 76,211 | 28,646 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.5 | 77.4 | 63.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -32.2 | 31.7 | -18.9 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 47.5 | 40.5 | 11.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.2 | 66.4 | 9.5 |
| – Net Position: | 82,006 | -87,341 | 5,335 |
| – Gross Longs: | 160,258 | 136,734 | 37,362 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 78,252 | 224,075 | 32,027 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 73.3 | 28.9 | 56.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.8 | 15.2 | -22.8 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.5 | 75.8 | 15.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.8 | 34.3 | 22.3 |
| – Net Position: | -27,377 | 33,113 | -5,736 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,806 | 60,532 | 12,062 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,183 | 27,419 | 17,798 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.4 | 53.5 | 54.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.0 | 20.1 | -25.1 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.0 | 72.7 | 10.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.9 | 33.2 | 12.9 |
| – Net Position: | -79,420 | 84,877 | -5,457 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,589 | 156,289 | 22,218 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 103,009 | 71,412 | 27,675 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.4 | 49.6 | 28.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.8 | 14.6 | -23.4 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.6 | 67.3 | 13.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 65.6 | 17.0 | 12.7 |
| – Net Position: | -83,560 | 82,545 | 1,015 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,988 | 110,361 | 21,761 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 107,548 | 27,816 | 20,746 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 4.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.0 | 79.1 | 51.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.8 | 7.2 | -2.8 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.1 | 57.7 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.1 | 44.9 | 10.6 |
| – Net Position: | -4,833 | 6,159 | -1,326 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,085 | 27,755 | 3,780 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,918 | 21,596 | 5,106 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.9 | 41.1 | 36.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.8 | 11.3 | -30.9 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 59.7 | 36.0 | 3.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.1 | 76.7 | 1.7 |
| – Net Position: | 68,055 | -71,691 | 3,636 |
| – Gross Longs: | 105,231 | 63,351 | 6,628 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,176 | 135,042 | 2,992 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.5 | 37.4 | 42.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.5 | -8.2 | -4.6 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.4 | 36.7 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.8 | 67.8 | 1.1 |
| – Net Position: | 24,598 | -27,830 | 3,232 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,209 | 32,730 | 4,179 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,611 | 60,560 | 947 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 4.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.5 | 34.3 | 39.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.3 | 16.3 | -1.2 |
Bitcoin Futures:
The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 83.6 | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 89.0 | 1.7 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | -1,501 | 1,195 | 306 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,039 | 1,660 | 1,460 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,540 | 465 | 1,154 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 3.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.9 | 83.2 | 53.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.0 | -11.1 | -8.4 |
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
More By This Author:
Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Silver, Sugar & 5-Year Top Bullish & Bearish Positions
Currency Speculators Cut Their British Pound Bets To 22-Week Low
Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq, Silver & Lean Hogs Lead Weekly Bullish Positions
Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...
more
Comments
