Photo by Thomas Coker on Unsplash
 

We talked about the Kiwi(NZDUSD) on November 26, where we mentioned and highlighted a bottom formation within an ending diagonal / wedge pattern for wave C of an ABC corrective decline. 
 

NZDUSD 4H Chart From November 26
 

As you can see today, Kiwi is nicely bouncing and recovering after RBNZ cut interest rates in November, and forecasts suggest the broader committee believes the nadir has been hit for the easing cycle. So the Kiwi is coming up as no room for cuts, for now. Notice it can be now bottom after the wedge pattern into wave C, due to an impulsive recovery, which we see it as a wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. So seems like more upside is coming within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, but ideally after the current corrective setback in wave 2 with supports at 0.5750 - 0.5700.
 

NZDUSD 4H Chart From November 26
 

The reason Kiwi could see more upside into late 2025 and early 2026 is due to a bullish stock market, which still has room for gains. Notice that the S&P 500 and NZD/USD (Kiwi) have been in a tight positive correlation since the November lows. Therefore, if the S&P 500 is set to resume its bullish trend, the Kiwi could easily follow.
 

NZDUSD vs. SP500 

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