On Friday we have the US non-farm payroll in print and markets are looking for reasons to price in the next monetary policy move from the Federal Reserve. An out of consensus print is likely to sharply move the USD. However, how much is the EURUSD likely to move? Well, looking at Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the move in the EURUSD over the last 5 years of NFP prints.
The data tells us that the maximum move higher on NFP day has been 0.89% and the maximum move lower -0.59%. Even more helpful the maximum move is also recorded, We can see that the maximum total move before the end of the day was 0.89% and the maximum drop was -0.59% too. This means that should there be an out of consensus print that is around the most that the EURUSD can be expected to move.
This is very helpful in terms of setting targets. Furthermore, if we extend the data to include 2 days we can see that the maximum gain is 1.44% and the maximum loss is 1.37%. So, if traders were wanting to hold a position on a surprise print these are some of the maximum expectations that could be reasonably expected. The major trade risk here is that previous price patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each time.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
