Daily Market Outlook - Wednesday, Nov. 19

By Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill

Wednesday, November 19, 2025 6:30 AM EST

Hands, World, Map, Global, Earth, Globe, Continents

Image Source: Pixabay

Risk sentiment remains subdued ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, a pivotal moment for market stability, as worries over lofty valuations triggered a selloff that erased nearly $1.6 trillion from global markets. Asian markets dropped, marking their fourth consecutive day of losses. Meanwhile, futures for the S&P 500 edged down, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped during Asian trade but are recovering into the London open. In other developments, Japanese bonds showed some recovery after a 20-year government bond auction revealed lingering caution among investors over potential oversupply, especially with Prime Minister Takaichi preparing to unveil his first economic stimulus plan. Oil prices dipped slightly as data indicating rising U.S. stockpiles helped ease concerns about the effects of Western sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, gold steadied after recent fluctuations. Bitcoin saw a slight uptick on Tuesday after plunging to a seven-month low below 90K, attracting bargain hunters in a market where many investors remain cautious about taking on excessive risk exposure. The cryptocurrency, known for its sensitivity to market sentiment, has wiped out all its gains from earlier this year. Currently, Bitcoin sits approximately 26% lower than its October peak of over 126K. Asian trading desks have once again shunned exposure to the digital benchmark as it retests pivotal support at the 90k level as European markets come online.

UK inflation, as measured by the main CPI index, eased to 3.6% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.2 percentage point drop from the previous month. While this was slightly higher than market expectations, it aligned closely with the Bank of England's November Monetary Policy Report forecasts. The primary factor behind the decline in the annual rate was the anticipated quarterly adjustment of OFGEM’s energy price cap. From a policy perspective, the services inflation rate came in at 4.5% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points below the BoE staff forecast. However, this minor deviation likely reflects volatility in airfares rather than a significant trend. Overall, the report doesn’t provide major insights that would strongly influence expectations for a December BoE rate cut. On one side, the rebound in food inflation—rising 0.4 percentage points to 4.9% year-on-year—could bolster the MPC hawks' resistance to a near-term rate cut, as it poses a risk to inflation expectations. On the flip side, there were no headline surprises or major component shocks (food inflation was expected to hit 5.0% year-on-year), which leaves room for Governor Bailey to justify a case for switching his vote in favour of a cut. If a rate cut does happen in December, it seems likely to hinge on Bailey tipping the scales with a narrow 5-4 vote rather than securing a broad consensus.

The spotlight today seems to be shifting away from the FOMC minutes, due later, and firmly onto Nvidia’s Q3 results, expected at 9 PM GMT. This comes amidst a notable pullback in equity indices, fuelled partly by concerns over stretched valuations in the tech sector. The S&P 500 is now hovering just about 1% above its recent low of 6550, reached on October 10 when market sentiment briefly dipped following Trump’s threats of additional tariffs on China. Interestingly, this level aligns closely with the 100-day moving average, and Monday saw the first close below the 50-day moving average since April. While fundamentals will ultimately drive the market, the short-term focus remains on whether corporate earnings or other factors will cause this support level to hold firm or break. If it holds, it could evolve into a key psychological marker; however, a breach might amplify fears of a deeper equity correction. Switching back to the FOMC minutes, key points to watch include any fresh details regarding the decision to halt QT starting December 1 and, more critically, whether there’s a measurable explanation of the “growing chorus” — as Powell described — that supported pausing after the October rate cut.

Overnight Headlines

BoJ’s Ueda To Meet With Japanese Ministers Katayama, Kiuchi
Japan’s 10Y Bond Yields At Highest Since Global Financial Crisis
Australia’s Wage Growth Elevated As RBA Signals Prolonged Pause
China’s Key Bond Yield Set To Drop Below Japan’s For First Time
UK Chancellor Looks To Shield Small Businesses From Tax Rises
Trump Says He Thinks He Already Knows Choice For Fed Chair
Nvidia, Microsoft Pour $15B Into Anthropic For New AI Alliance
Musk’s xAI In Talks To Raise $15B, Lifting Valuation To $230B
Meta Cleared Of Monopoly Allegations Over IG, WhatsApp Acquisitions
Tesla Gets Approval For Autonomous Rideshare Service In Arizona
Toyota To Invest $912M To Boost Hybrid Production In US
Bitcoin Rebounds After Falling Below $90K, A 7-Month Low
US Working With Russia On New Plan To End War In Ukraine
US Senate Unanimously Agrees To Approve Epstein Files Bill

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.1500 (1.9BLN), 1.1575-80 (509M), 1.1590-1.1600 (1.7BLN), 1.1675-90 (1.1BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7995 (373M), 0.8020 (511M). EUR/CHF: 0.9250-60 (228M)
GBP/USD: 1.3025 (400M), 1.3100 (462M), 1.3200 (407M), 1.3250 (455M)
AUD/USD: 0.6475-85 (1.3BLN), 0.6500-05 (1.3BLN)
USD/CAD: 1.4030-40 (724M)
USD/JPY: 155.00 (304M), 155.30 (230M), 155.50-60 (726M), 156.00 (323M)