Daily Market Outlook - Monday, Nov. 11

By Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill

Monday, November 11, 2024 6:15 AM EST

Cutout paper illustration representing scheme and Stocks inscription

Image Source: Pexels

In contrast to Wall Street's record highs from Friday and futures suggesting more strength at the reopening, Hong Kong stocks led Asia's Monday falls as Beijing's most recent stimulus failed to meet investor expectations. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 2%, while a sub-index of mainland Chinese real estate stocks fell 3.9%. The Nikkei in Japan dropped 0.3%. Taiwan's benchmark fell 0.7%, while South Korea's Kospi fell 0.9%.

With Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election and pro-crypto candidates being elected to Congress, Bitcoin surged to its highest level ever, raising hopes for a lax regulatory framework. In comparison to major rivals, the dollar was trading close to its four-month high last week as traders got ready for a series of Federal Reserve speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, to share their thoughts on the economic outlook and policy. After the excitement of the U.S. election and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, this week will be an intriguing but low-key time for event risk. These developments, as well as China's announcement of fiscal stimulus measures that fell short of expectations, will continue to have an impact on markets.

Monday is Veterans Day Stateside, Wednesday is the release of the October CPI, Thursday is the PPI and weekly unemployment claims, and the week ends with retail sales and industrial production. In addition to the lending statistics anticipated throughout the week, China's economic calendar features October data on urban investment, IP, retail sales, housing prices, and unemployment on Friday. Highlights of Europe's data include the ZEW survey on Tuesday, German final October inflation, and eurozone flash Q3 GDP, industrial production, and employment on Thursday. The UK's GDP, construction, and industrial production figures come out on Friday after Tuesday's jobs report. On Thursday, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will give her first "Mansion House Speech." Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, will also speak at the event. Japan will issue Q3 GDP and core machinery orders on Friday, current account and trade data on Monday, and the Bank of Japan's summary of views from the October 30-31 meeting on Friday. On Thursday, Australia's primary releases are the Q3 Wage Price Index, the NAB business survey, and October jobs statistics.

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

Fed’s Kashkari: Economy Strong, But Inflation Not Vanquished
If Trump Tries To Fire Powell, Fed Chair Is Ready For A Legal Fight
Australia Faces Economic Pain From Trump Win, Treasurer Warns
ECB's Holzmann: No Reason Not To Cut Rates In Dec As Of Now
German ZEW To Edge Higher; Politics Could Reverse Forecasts
Japanese Funds Embrace German Bonds; Shunning French Debt
Japan PM Ishiba Cabinet Resigns Ahead Of Diet PM Votes
BoJ Cautions On Rate Hike With No Clear Dec Hint
Hong Kong Finance Chief Sees Growth Near Lower End of Forecast
China Inflation Slowest Rise In 4 Months, Despite Stimulus
China Suffers Foreign Investment Deficit For 2nd Straight Quarter
US Ordered TSMC To Halt AI-Chips Shipments To China

(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EU1.59b), 1.1050 (EU1.3b), 1.0900 (EU934.2m)
USD/JPY: 121.18 ($500m), 151.45 ($330m)
USD/CNY: 6.8200 ($890m), 6.9500 ($330m), 6.9000 ($300m)
USD/CAD: 1.4065 ($1.37b), 1.3740 ($1.31b), 1.3713 ($500m)
AUD/USD: 0.6650 (AUD608.2m), 0.6700 (AUD377.6m), 0.6415 (AUD375.7m)
GBP/USD: 1.3025 (GBP379.2m)
NZD/USD: 0.5940 (NZD606m)

CFTC Data As Of 8/11/24

USD net spec G10 long -$0.31bn
EUR +1.04% in period; specs +26.7k contracts now -21.7k
JPY -1.19%; specs sell 19.4k contracts now -44.2k; US-JP rate divergence
GBP +0.2%; specs sell 21.3k contracts long cut to 45.1k
CAD -0.63%; specs sell 7.7k contracts; BoC rate well below Fed in 2025
AUD +1.14%; specs +3.5k contracts now +31k; RBA seen as more hawkish c.bank
BTC -4.37% in period; specs +412 contracts, now -1,457
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 97,351 contracts to 194,685
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 52,438 contracts to 992,952
Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 82,913 contracts to 818,270