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At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.56% (for the week +6.16%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.81% (for the week +8.27%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.89% (for the week +11.44%). The US stocks rose on Friday, ending a turbulent week on a high note, with hopes of a possible trade deal between the US and China lifting investor sentiment. Trump is optimistic about striking a deal with China even as trade tensions escalate, with Trump raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% and China retaliating by imposing 125% duties on imports from the US. On the economic front, a University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment is at its lowest level since 2022, and inflation expectations have reached a peak not seen since 1981. Meanwhile, earnings season got off to a mixed start with mixed banking results. For example, Wells Fargo Bank shares fell 1%, while Morgan Stanley added 1.4% and JPMorgan rose by 4% after posting record earnings.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to $1.39 in April, hitting a five-month high, driven by a marked weakening of the US dollar as investors exited US assets amid growing fears of recession and high inflation. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China further undermined confidence in the outlook for the US economy. While the 90-day truce announced by President Trump briefly raised hopes of renewed trade talks, growing concerns about the US outlook led capital to return to Canada, helping to drive the Lonnie higher.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.92% (for the week +5.98%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.30% lower (for the week +3.60%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.18% (for the week +5.57%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.64% (for the week -1.13%). European stock markets reversed early gains and closed lower, ending a turbulent week dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China. The EU confirmed that it will not compromise on its digital regulatory framework as part of any potential trade agreement with the US. As for domestic data, Germany’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 was confirmed at 2.2%, down slightly from 2.3%, the lowest since last November. European stock markets are expecting a strong start to Monday after US President Donald Trump announced the exemption of key technology goods from recently imposed tariffs, boosting global investor sentiment.

Sweden’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 0.5%, confirming initial estimates, from 1.3% in February. This is the lowest since December 2020 and marks the eighth consecutive month inflation has remained below the Riksbank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fixed-rate Consumer Price Index, the Riksbank’s target variable, rose 2.3% in March, matching the preliminary reading and down from February’s annualized high of 2.9%.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose above $31.20 an ounce on Friday, posting gains for the third consecutive session, as a generally weaker US dollar and renewed economic concerns spurred demand for alternative assets. The metal also benefited from rising safe haven flows as the dollar lost some of its traditional safe haven appeal.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.4% to settle at $61.50 a barrel on Friday after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could block Iranian oil exports as part of efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. Nevertheless, concerns over the US-China trade dispute continued to weigh on demand expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC+ surprised markets by accelerating plans to increase production, raising concerns about oversupply.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 7.75% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 3.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 6.04%.

Exports from China rose 12.4% year-on-year to US$313.9 billion in March 2025, well above market expectations of 4.4% and sharply accelerating from a 2.3% increase in January-February. This is the fastest growth in overseas sales since last October, reflecting an expected increase in US tariffs under Trump that will take effect in April. In the first quarter of 2025, exports rose 5.8% from the same period in 2024 to US $853.7 billion.

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.63 on Monday, posting a fourth straight session of gains as US President Donald Trump exempted key technology goods from his new “retaliatory” tariffs, boosting risk sentiment globally. The exemption applies to goods that are largely made in China, including smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar panels, and flat-panel displays. China’s Ministry of Commerce called the duty exemption a “small step” but urged the US to eliminate the broader 145% tax on Chinese goods. China remains Australia’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its goods, so the Australian dollar is particularly sensitive to the developing trade relationship between the US and China.

• S&P 500 (US500) 5,363.36 +95.31 (+1.81%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 40,212.71 +619.05 (+1.56%)
• DAX (DE40) 20,374.10 −188.63 (−0.92%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,964.18 +50.93 (+0.64%)
• USD Index 99.78 −1.08 (−1.07%)

News feed for: 2025.04.14

• China Trade Balance (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3).

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