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The Dow Jones index (US30) was down 2.50% at Thursday’s close. The S&P500 Index (US500) was down 3.46%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 4.19%. The White House announced it would raise tariffs on China to 145%, adding uncertainty and fueling fears that trade wars could lead the US into recession. Technology giants led the decline, with Tesla falling 10% and Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon losing more than 6.5%. Oil producers also declined amid falling energy prices, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil falling -6% each. After yesterday’s rally sparked by Trump’s tariff pause, investors’ concerns about economic growth came to the forefront despite evidence of disinflation in today’s CPI data. The annualized US inflation rate fell for the second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February and below forecasts of 2.6%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021 and below forecasts of 3%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 20.5 per dollar, hitting its lowest since March 2022, as continued uncertainty over US trade policy renewed risk aversion and pressured emerging markets. For Mexico, whose economy is closely intertwined with US supply chains, the lack of clarity on the trajectory of global trade poses a direct threat to industrial activity and capital flows. Without a near-term solution, investors shift to safer assets, putting pressure on the peso as markets navigate a highly volatile and fragmented trade situation. Tariffs have already led to plant shutdowns in Mexico. With the looming threat of recession in the US, Mexico’s export prospects have deteriorated.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 4.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 3.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 4.32%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 3.04% on Thursday. The suspension of tariffs by the EU and the US helped ease fears of a slowing global economy and rising inflation. On Thursday, the European Union announced a 90-day suspension of new tariffs on the US to allow for trade talks, following US President Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on countries that failed to retaliate to his initial trade sanctions. Currently, the US maintains base tariffs of 10% on imports from all countries, including the EU, with some exceptions, while automobiles are still subject to a 25% duty.

The US natural gas prices fell more than 6.5% to $3.55/MMBtu amid a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories and forecasts of mild weather and lower demand. The EIA reported pumping 57 Bcf into storage last week, well above the five-year average of 17 Bcf.

WTI crude prices fell by 3.7% to $60.1 a barrel on Thursday after rising 4.6% in the previous session as escalating trade tensions between the US and China renewed demand concerns. President Trump raised tariffs on China to 145% just a day after a 104% increase took effect. Although he suspended imposing new tariffs on other countries for 90 days, the sharply escalating relationship with China, the world’s top oil importer, has raised fears of reduced demand for fuel. China has raised tariffs on US goods to 84% and is expected to unveil stimulus measures to support sectors such as housing and consumption.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 9.13% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.86%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 4.54%. The White House announced that US tariffs on China now stand at 145%, a day after markets rose on President Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of some duties. The Hang Seng Index is on track for its fifth weekly decline, down nearly 10% this week. Traders are awaiting China’s March trade data due over the weekend amid concerns that exports and imports may start to feel the strain of rising tariffs. However, losses were tempered by hopes of new stimulus, with reports on Thursday of a meeting of China’s top leaders to discuss new support measures.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michelle Bullock declined to recommend an early interest rate cut, saying, “It is too early for us to determine what the path of interest rates will be.” The RBA emphasized that it continues to monitor domestic and global markets, including exchange rate movements and the reaction of trading partners. While markets have priced in the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut in May and even called for an emergency rate cut ahead of the board’s next meeting, Bullock reiterated that its focus remains on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.

• S&P 500 (US500) 5,268.05 −188.85 (−3.46%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 39,593.66 −1,014.79 (−2.50%)
• DAX (DE40) 20,562.73 +891.85 (+4.53%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,913.25 +233.77 (+3.04%)
• USD index 101.05 −1.85 (−1.80%)

News feed for: 2025.04.11

• UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

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