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The US producers always seem to throw a curve into the Planting intentions each year. They reported to the USDA on today’s survey that they intend to drop their overall feed grain plantings by 6.18 million acres with 4.6 million acres of the total coming from corn. This dramatic yearly change has swept the CBOT’s corn, wheat, and oats higher while beans 2.9 million seeding has this pit’s prices slightly lower. Today’s March corn stocks also contributed to this feed grain strength when the USDA’s quarterly stocks were 80 million lower than the trade est.

Today’s USDA planting survey revealed some dramatic changes in corn seedings lead by the N Plains.  MN was down 700,000, SD – 300,000, and ND 250,000. Iowa and M0 will loss 650,000 and ECB will shed 1.3 million from IL, IN, MI, WI, and OH.Tx will also drop their plantings by 400,000. This could cut 835 million bushels in output using the Feb Outlook yield. The added decline in the other feed grains seedings of 800,000 lower sorghum, 240,000 lower oats & 535,000 lower barley seedings is going to tighten US feed supplies in 2024/25.

Today’s smaller March 1 corn stocks of 8.347 billion bu were 80 million bu. lower than last year because of the 101 million higher winter quarter corn feeding level. This added to corn’s strength. Overall,2023/24’s US first-half feed disappearance is 279 million higher than last year. This is partly from this year’s lower prices prompting an inventory buildup by animal producers. It might also suggest that an overestimate of last fall’s corn crop might have occurred. This will be rechecked on June 30 stocks update. 

The USDA’s planting survey also projected a 2.9 million increase in 2024 US seedings according to producers. This was 20,000 acres less than the trade average increase for 2024. The N Plains area is projected 950,000 more acres ( ND +700, SD +100 & MN + 150). IA & MO are up 650,000 while the ECB is up 900,000 acres ( IL + 150, IN +250, OH +250, MI +160, & WI +90). Today’s 1.7 million difference between corn’s decline and soybeans increase is a bit of a head-scratcher. Today’s slightly higher March 1 bean stocks of 17 million bu to 1.845 billion vs the trade average. Given the quarterly exports & soybean crush and 70 million increase in last fall’s quarterly stocks to 3 billion bu., this quarter’s residual disappearance is 100 million bu lower than last year. Like corn this suggests that 2023/24’s crop size might be different from the USDA’s January level. In this case, the US bean crop could be higher. The June quarterly will be watched closely to be what the US residual level suggest at that time.

The USDA’s Spring planting survey reveal a jump in spring US wheat and durum seedings.ND is down (-150) while MN (+300) and SD (+110) for a 135,000 increase while US durum seedings are 352,000 higher in this survey.WW wheat seeding were shaved by 290,000 from there Jan initial seeding report. Overall, US wheat planting are 2.077 million lower than last year.  Countering these lower seeding, the USDA’s March 1 stocks were 43 million bu higher than the trade’s average estimate at 1.087 billion bu.  This might suggest a slightly lower feeding level in this year’s balance sheet. 

Today’s USDA updates again provided some dramatic surprises vs the trade’s expectations. This week’s strong corn and decent wheat exports might have also contributed to these two grains price increase. Bean’s US 9.7 million overseas sales also likely limited soybeans price advance today, too. Overall, Today’s sharp decline in US feedgrain plantings have reduced this sector’s excessive 2024/25 ending carryovers. This summer’s weather and growing conditions will be final arbiter on the US new crop prices to appears now.  

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