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Silver's recent upward move was most likely just a corrective upswing. What usually happens after such adjustments are completed?

As I emphasized many times before, silver's outperformance is rarely a bullish sign, and the fact that it recently took a very visible form only indicates that the next slide will be of medium-term size, not just something short-term.

Silver just invalidated its temporary breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Yes, that’s a retracement that’s higher than the analogous ones in stocks, gold, and mining stocks, and… This is yet another confirmation of silver’s short-term strength.

Once again – it’s not something bullish, but very likely something bearish.

This means that the recent sizable rally is nothing more than a – sizable, but still – correction within a bigger downtrend.

Looking at silver from a long-term point of view helps to see the forest, not just individual trees.

When looking at silver from a long-term point of view, it’s still obvious that the recent move higher was most likely just a corrective upswing.

What happens after corrections are over (as indicated by, i.e., silver’s outperformance)? The previous trend resumes. The previous trend was down, so that’s where silver is likely headed next.

Besides, the long-term turning point for silver is due in several months, and if silver repeats its previous 2022 decline, then it will bottom close to the turning point and also close to the $15 level– in the first half of 2023.

It’s likely to repeat its previous 2022, because that’s what tends to happen after flag patterns, and what you see on silver’s short-term chart between September and yesterday appears to be a flag pattern.

However, will silver only repeat its previous 2022 performance and not decline more than it already has?

Based on the analogies to 2008 and 2013, the latter is more likely. The 2013 slide was bigger than the initial decline that we saw in 2012. And the final 2008 slide was WAY bigger than what we saw before it.

Due to its industrial uses, silver is known to move more than gold, in particular when the stock market is moving in the same way as gold does. Since I think that gold and stocks are both likely to slide, silver is indeed likely to decline in a truly profound manner. Quite likely lower than just $15.

Consequently, my prediction for silver prices remains bearish, as does the outlook for the rest of the precious metals sector.

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