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Everyone’s fixated on whether the Fed will cut rates or what central banks are doing with their reserves.

But here’s what almost nobody is paying attention to: the mining industry has a serious problem finding new gold. And I mean serious.

I’ve been tracking discovery data for years now, on the ground and around the world - not the press releases about “potential” or “exploration targets,” but real, economic deposits that can actually become mines.

Since the 1990s, a litany of companies have announced exploration programs, drilled some holes, and published enthusiastic investor presentations. Then it was crickets.

The Big Gold Discoveries Aren’t Happening Anymore

Those mines are now 30-40 years old. Some are depleting. Others are getting more expensive to run as grades drop and they have to dig deeper.

Companies are still spending on exploration - billions, actually. But they’re not finding much that’s worth developing.

Here’s the number that matters.

Global mine supply is sitting around 3,700 metric tons for 2025. That’s up maybe 1% from last year. Basically flat since 2018.

Think about what that means. Gold has more than doubled in price since 2019. In a normal market, that price signal would usher in a flood of new supply.

But in gold mining, production has barely moved. The price signal isn’t working.

The timeline problem is worse than most people realize. Let’s say you find something promising tomorrow. Best case scenario? You’re looking at a minimum 12-18 years before you’re actually pouring gold. I’ve watched projects get stuck in permitting for 5+ years just in Nevada, which is comparatively mining-friendly.

What that means is that companies that will be producing gold in 2030 are working from decisions made in 2015-2020 – under completely different price assumptions.

Where the Gold Actually Is

Russia and Australia together hold about 40% of the world’s unmined gold reserves, roughly 12,000 metric tons each, according to USGS data.

Russian gold? Off limits to most Western companies and investors due to sanctions.

China has around 3,000 metric tons of reserves, but they’re developing them for domestic use, not for export. Canada and the US have similar amounts. Canada and the US have similar amounts.

So you’re left with Australia, Canada, and the US as the only “safe” jurisdictions with major reserves.

And even in those countries - and I say this having watched how long it takes to get anything approved - getting permits for new mines has become a multi-year nightmare. Environmental regulations, community consultations, legal challenges. Projects that should take 2-3 years to permit are taking 7-8. It all adds up to projects taking forever to get approved, if they get approved at all.

The concentration is crazy when you really look at it. A handful of countries control most of the accessible gold that can realistically be developed in the next decade. And they’re not exactly making it easy to build new mines.

Actually, let me shift gears for a second because there’s something about gold supply that most people miss.

Gold works differently from copper or oil. It doesn’t get consumed and disappear. Almost all the gold ever mined still exists somewhere – jewelry, bars, coins, central bank vaults. So supply includes both new mine production and recycled gold from existing stocks.

But central banks aren’t recycling gold. And as I pointed out in yesterday’s piece, they’re buying. Aggressively. And holding.

According to the World Gold Council’s latest Q3 2025 report, central banks added 220 metric tons in Q3 alone, pushing year-to-date purchases to around 634 tons. That’s on track to match or exceed the previous three years of record buying – each above 1,000 tons annually.

Asian jewelry demand remains structurally strong, and Western investment demand is picking back up as gold trades above $4,000.

Meanwhile, once again, new mine supply hasn’t budged, even with demand surging from every direction.

Here’s the number that matters: global mine supply is sitting around 3,700 metric tons for 2025. That’s up maybe 1% from last year. Basically, flat since 2018.

That gap only closes one way, with higher prices.

What Mining Companies Can Actually Do About This

Not much, honestly. Not quickly anyway.

Go chase discoveries in risky places – parts of Africa, Central Asia, South America, where the geology might be good but everything else is questionable. Some companies are doing this. Investors are skeptical, which makes financing hard. I’ve seen companies spend years trying to finance projects in places like Burkina Faso or the DRC.

Or stick to expanding what you already have in safer jurisdictions. Lower risk, but also limited growth because the obvious expansions have mostly been done already. You can only extend a pit so far before the economics stop working – even at higher prices there’s a physical limit to how far you can push it.

Neither path is great. Add in rising labor costs, energy costs getting hammered by inflation, and environmental requirements that keep getting stricter, and you see why production growth is so difficult even with gold at these prices.

Which brings me to what truly separates the winners from everyone else in this environment.

Scale matters – but only if it comes with the right assets. I’m not talking about junior explorers with no cash flow. I’m talking about producers that already have the infrastructure, the permits, and the teams in place.

You want companies with long-life operations in places where the rules don’t change every election cycle. In particular, we’re looking to locations like Canada, the U.S. and Australia. Places where a mine can operate for 20-30 years without wondering if the government will nationalize it or suddenly demand 70% of profits (such as Venezuela and Zimbabwe).

Tier One assets – the industry term for large, low-cost mines that print cash across different gold price environments.

Strong cost structures that don’t fall apart when diesel prices spike or labor negotiations go sideways.

And management that consistently grows reserves instead of just replacing what they mine each year. Most companies struggle with this. The good ones make it look easy.

The market is finally starting to price this in. Producers with the best jurisdictions and cost structures are pulling away from peers in valuation. I expect that gap will widen as more investors figure out the supply picture.

Why This Matters Now

The supply constraint isn’t going anywhere.

Yet, demand can shift with sentiment or policy changes.

The gold that will be mined in 2030 comes from projects that are either already producing or very far along in development right now. There’s basically zero chance of a surprise new supply between now and then.

For investors, this creates an opportunity to look past all the macro noise, and there’s a lot of noise right now, and focus on operations. The companies controlling large, long-life gold resources in stable jurisdictions aren’t just leveraged to gold prices. They’re leveraged to a supply scarcity that’s been building for years and shows no sign of resolving.

We’ve been tracking one of these companies closely for months now, and it checks all the boxes being laid out here. A top-tier producer. One with operations across multiple stable jurisdictions. A company with a reserve base that most miners would kill for. The kind of operational track record that actually backs up the balance sheet.

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