Softs Report - Tuesday, Jan. 31

General Comments: Cotton was lower and still remains inside the trading range created since the beginning of November. Futures are still showing bad demand fundamentals that have kept prices from rallying through resistance areas. Overall, the demand for US Cotton has not been strong although better demand has developed over the last couple of weeks. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months as Covid outbreaks should start to weaken as people get vaccinated or immune. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,900 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.20, 82.00, and 81.30 March, with resistance of 87.50, 88.90 and 89.90 March.

Image by Ulrike Leone from Pixabay

General Comments: FCOJ was higher and trends started to turn up again on the daily charts. Demand should start to improve with the holidays now over and cold air being reported over much of the country. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed o up with objectives of 220.00 March. Support is at 207.00, 203.00, and 201.00 March, with resistance at 214.00, 217.00, and 220.00 March.

General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday with Vietnam back at work after the Lunar New Year and the US Dollar moving a little lower during the session. The charts show that New York is trying to complete a bottom that could be significant to medium range pricing. London weekly charts show a market that has been working a little higher almost every week since November but ran into a little speculative long liquidation along with little new buying interest yesterday. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee either way when the next harvest comes in a few months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.852 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 167.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 172.00 March. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 163.00 March, and resistance is at 175.00, 177.00 and 183.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2040 March. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2120 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and chart patterns indicate that prices can move higher again over the course of this week. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south should turn dry again after some rains in the last week or so. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed but are more active now. Ideas are that India will produce about 34.3 million tons of Sugar this year, about 4% less than the previous outlook.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2160 March. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2130, 2160, and 2170 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 573.00 and 603.00 March. Support is at 562.00, 559.00, and 552.00 March and resistance is at 571.00, 579.00, and 582.00 March.

General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher yesterday. Both markets show that futures are in mostly a range trade. Weaker demand shown by the grind data that got released in the last week. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The North American grind was 8.1% lower and the EU and Asian grinds were about 2% lower. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are large at ports. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.961 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 March, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2700 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2060, 2090, and 2160 March. Support is at 2020, 1990, and 1950 March, with resistance at 2050, 2080, and 2090 March.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Friday, Jan. 27
Grains Report - Wednesday, Jan. 25
Softs Report - Tuesday Jan. 24

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