Softs Report - Friday, Jan. 27

General Comments: Cotton was moderately higher yesterday and still remains inside the trading range created over the last couple of months. Futures have been stuck in the same trading range since the beginning of November but are showing bad demand fundamentals. Overall, the demand for US Cotton has not been strong. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by news of Covid outbreaks in China. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.64 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,900 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. USDA on Thursday morning said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 213,700 bales this year and 6,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 5,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.60, 83.20, and 82.00 March, with resistance of 89.00, 89.90 and 92.10 March.

Image by Ulrike Leone from Pixabay

General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday. Trends are mixed as the market seems to be falling back into a trading range after making a spike high after the reports were released. Demand should start to improve now with the holidays now over. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 201.00, 197.00, and 194.00 March, with resistance at 209.00, 214.00, and 217.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday. The activity in London was diminished as Vietnam and much of Southeast Asia is closed for the Tet holiday or Lunar New Year. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. Ideas are that the buy side needs Coffee now. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee either way when the next harvest comes in a few months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.870 million70ags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 172.00 March. Support is at 159.00, 155.00, and 152.00 March, and resistance is at 169.00, 173.00 and 178.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1950 and 2040 March. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1890 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2100 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on buying seen in most commodities markets. Rains have returned to much of southern Brazil since the weekend. Cane production prospects should be improved. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. There is talk that production in India will be reduced this year after some bad weather and reduced yields reported in Maharashtra. Ideas are that India will produce about 34.3 million tons of Sugar this year, about 4% less than the previous outlook.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2100 and 2160 March. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1950 March and resistance is at 2080, 2120, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 573.00 and 603.00 March. Support is at 549.00, 541.00, and 537.00 March and resistance is at 559.00, 562.00, and 565.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday. Weaker demand shown by the grind data that got released last week. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The North American grind was 8.1% lower and the EU and Asian grinds were about 2% lower. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are large at ports. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.929 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 March, with resistance at 2670, 2700, and 2730 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2010, 1990, and 1960 March, with resistance at 2030, 2050, and 2080 March.

More By This Author:

Grains Report - Wednesday, Jan. 25
Softs Report - Tuesday Jan. 24
Grains Report - Monday, Jan. 23

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