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COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was little changed last week before the release of the USDA reports on Monday, and trends are still mostly down despite ideas of improving demand due to the cheaper prices. Getter crop condition ratings from USDA kept ideas of big production around. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. USDA showed overall good crop conditions that have kept abandonment ideas at a minimum and supported strong yields along with increased planted area. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.40, 65.20, and 64.60 December, with resistance of 68.80, 70.20 and 73.70 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,922
: Positions :
: 34,149 89,091 61,179 77,316 82,667 81,661 18,743 254,306 251,679: 13,617 16,244
: :
: Changes from: July 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,782) :
: 1,520 4,046 -2,659 4,435 -1,395 -820 1,849 2,476 1,841: 306 941
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 33.3 22.8 28.9 30.9 30.5 7.0 94.9 93.9: 5.1 6.1
: :
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 112 92 64 58 45 20 244 232:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday on apparent speculative selling but were little changed for the week. A hurricane passed west of growing areas this week, but more tropical waves are in the ocean right now. The hurricane watch continued but nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.

Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 393.00 September, with resistance at 454.00, 467.00, and 471.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,368 :
: Positions :
: 1,607 6,900 732 0 275 2,698 506 31 1,146 569 3,092 :
: :
: Changes from: July 30, 2024 :
: -103 -254 -22 0 85 -339 -42 -13 -53 84 173 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 55.8 5.9 0.0 2.2 21.8 4.1 0.3 9.3 4.6 25.0 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 6 8 4 0 . 17 6 . 12 9 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
 

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COFFEE

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as offers of Indonesian Robusta and Conillon from Brazil increased with the harvest there of the robusta starting to wind down. Cooxupe said last week that it now expects a year over year drop in overall Coffee production in the country, but the Brazil government said that exports were 292,266 tons in July from 140,454 tons last year. Reports of better rains in Vietnam and Brazil recently were important but reports indicate that Brazil is turning dry again. There are still reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.

Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 229.28 ct/lb.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 228.00, and 225.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4600, 4680, and 4740 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 289,432
: Positions :
: 50,339 10,458 89,475 77,326 162,213 63,548 21,090 280,687 283,236: 8,745 6,196
: :
: Changes from: July 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -7,612) :
: -4,195 -2,506 -3,081 445 -2,637 -971 1,091 -7,803 -7,134: 191 -478
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 3.6 30.9 26.7 56.0 22.0 7.3 97.0 97.9: 3.0 2.1
: :
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 55 112 94 119 48 21 317 269:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on what seemed to be speculative short covering tied to news that India will not permit exports of Sugar. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 955,730
: Positions :
: 81,175 140,036 206,299 388,212 485,154 215,842 56,137 891,528 887,626: 64,203 68,104
: Changes from: July 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 16,701) :
: -2,376 17,003 7,137 11,827 -11,045 -1,901 -1,313 14,688 11,782: 2,013 4,919
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 14.7 21.6 40.6 50.8 22.6 5.9 93.3 92.9: 6.7 7.1
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 69 80 74 70 38 20 211 193:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as tight supply conditions and reports of good demand are still around, but as prospects for the next crops are called good. The weather for the next crop is still improved as weather reports indicate it is raining in Ivory Coast and Ghana right now. However, it appears that drier weather is coming and this is causing concerns about the next production. The current rains can help production of the next crop but have also created disease concerns about the pods. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. The North American and European grinds were stronger in data released last week, but the Asian grind was down a little. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9540, 9800, and 10310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6290, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 192,544
: Positions :
: 26,724 15,021 67,178 57,963 89,720 28,605 14,456 180,470 186,376: 12,074 6,169
: :
: Changes from: July 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -30,065) :
: -973 -368 -26,637 -1,396 -3,086 -1,156 -455 -30,161 -30,546: 96 481
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 7.8 34.9 30.1 46.6 14.9 7.5 93.7 96.8: 6.3 3.2
: :
: Total Traders: 160 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 37 66 36 35 28 15 150 121:

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