Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash
 

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on a stronger US Dollar, and trends are still mostly down despite ideas of improving demand due to the cheaper prices. Getter crop condition ratings from USDA kept ideas of big production around. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. USDA showed overall good crop conditions that have kept abandonment ideas at a minimum and supported strong yields along with increased planted area. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.40, 65.20, and 64.60 December, with resistance of 68.70, 70.20 and 73.70 December.
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday on apparent speculative selling as short term chart trends turned up again earlier in the week. A hurricane passed west of growing areas this week, but more tropical waves are in the ocean right now. The hurricane watch continued but nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 455.00 and 476.00 September. Support is at 425.00, 415.00, and 410.00 September, with resistance at 454.00, 467.00, and 471.00 September.
 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in correction trading from the big rally this week as offers of Indonesian Robusta and Conillon from Brazil increased with the harvest there of the robusta starting to wind down. Cooxupe now expects a year over year drop in overall Coffee production in the country, but the Brazil government said that exports were 292,266 tons in July from 140,454 tons last year. Reports of better rains in Vietnam and Brazil recently were important but reports indicate that Brazil is turning dry again. There are still reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 235.25 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 235.00, 230.00, and 228.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4600, 4680, and 4740 September.
 

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on what seemed to be speculative short covering tied to news that India will not permit exports of Sugar. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.
 

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as tight supply conditions and reports of good demand are still around, but as prospects for the next crops are called good. The weather for the next crop is still improved as weather reports indicate it is raining in Ivory Coast and Ghana right now. However, it appears that drier weather is coming and this is causing concerns about the next production. The current rains can help production of the next crop but have also created disease concerns about the pods. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. The North American and European grinds were stronger in data released last week, but the Asian grind was down a little. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9030, 9540, and 9800 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6290, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

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