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The price of silver literally collapsed Friday, declining more than $45 oz. from yesterday's intraday peak of just over $120 oz. The spot price intraday low had a $73 handle, and in less than one day the silver price implosion amounted to 39%. On a net closing price basis ($115 oz. to $84 oz.) the decline ($30 oz.) is more moderate at 26%.

In my previous article Do The Fundamentals Justify $100 Silver?, the price of silver was perched at $94 oz. At the time, it had not broken through the $100 mark, but it appeared that it could/would do so shortly...

"Silver closed at $94 oz. on Tuesday (1/20/2026). Momentum could take it right through $100 and higher."

In a second version of the article a couple of days later, I updated the price to $98 oz. (1/22/2026).

After a reasonably detailed response from ChatGPT regarding how much of silver's price increase was justified by fundamentals alone, and how much of the increase was the result of FOMO (fear of missin out), speculation, and other factors. Do the fundamentals justify $100 silver?

According to ChatGPT...

"Absolutely not — fundamentals alone cap out near $45–$50.

$100 silver requires:

• • 80–85% speculative component

  • Monetary or financial stress narrative

  • Loss of confidence in fiat or bond markets

  • Possible derivatives or physical delivery stress

$100 is a monetary event price, not a supply-demand price." 

HAVE SILVER FUNDAMENTALS CHANGED? 
 

According to the "experts" the silver prices of $100 oz. and $120 oz. were expected and justified. Also, those targets were supposedly temporary resting spots before a bigger move to much more lofty levels.  Question: Have the silver fundamentals changed?

Likely not. But they were likely overpriced. If so, how much were they overpriced? If the fundamentals "cap out near $45-50 oz." then there is probably more downside ahead. That does not mean that $45-50 oz. is a final resting spot on the downside, though. 

The silver price has quadrupled in the past nine months, from $30 oz. to $120 oz. That amounts to a gain of 300%. Fundamentals or not, that seems extreme by almost any standard of measurement. Extreme moves on the upside are usually followed by similarly extreme moves on the downside. In silver's case, its price history is replete with big upside moves followed by big declines...

1. From its high of $1.13 oz. in February 1919, the price of silver dropped to $.28 in January 1932 - a decline of 75%.
2. After peaking above $49 oz. in January 1980, the silver price dropped to a low of $3.57 oz. in February 1993 - a decline of 93%.
3. In April 2011, silver peaked at $48.70 oz., which was followed by a drop to $13.80 oz. in December 2015 - a decline of 72%.

An average of the three declines results in a potential downside target of 80%. Measuring from the $120 oz. peak, silver could fall as low as $24 oz. 

CONCLUSION 

Whatever the silver price does from this point, investors should expect extreme volatility with temporary upside spikes and renewed downdrafts. The fundamentals will not pave a rocky road for silver prices. More surprises are ahead. 

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Do The Fundamentals Justify $100 Silver?
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