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RE: STRATEGY (MSTR)

"There is nothing logical or rational that supports any reason to buy or hold this stock (MSTR). Its owner insists on buying as much Bitcoin as possible by borrowing as much money as possible. What I cannot understand is why others would accommodate (lend or invest) his penchant for financial suicide.

It was reported that he paid "well over $100,000 per Bitcoin" in his latest acquisition. Apparently, price is irrelevant to him. Investors in MicrStrategy stock don't seem to care either. Just this year, from a January low of 43 (split-adjusted), the stock rose 13-fold to a high of 543 in November. It has since backed down measurably to 330 currently.

The danger in this stock is heightened not just by a volatile Bitcoin price, but by the huge amount of leverage used to gobble up as much Bitcoin as possible. MSTR has lost nearly 40% since Thanksgiving. What would happen if Bitcoin goes into its own tailspin? (Kelsey Williams, December 31, 2024)

Strategy stock (MSTR) declined another 30% to a low of 237 earlier this year (April 2025), which coincided with lows in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. At that point, the decline from its peak in November 2024 amounted to 56%.

Following Bitcoin's lead, Strategy (MSTR) then rose to an intermediate high of 457 in July 2025. Today, four months later, Strategy (MSTR) stock closed at 170 per share after setting a new 52-week low at 167 earlier in the day. At this price, the stock is down 63 percent from its high this year of 457 and down nearly 70 percent from its all-time high one year ago.

ANALYSIS 

"What would happen if Bitcoin goes into its own tailspin?" Strategy (MSTR) stock price declines earlier this year, and recently, provide clear answers to the question. The next question for Strategy stock investors is "How bad can this get?

That depends mostly on the extent of Bitcoin's price decline. If Bitcoin cannot arrest its own descent and reverse sharply upwards in price, then the future for Strategy and its shareholders looks bleak.

Strategy trades on listed exchanges as a stock, but, as others have already pointed out, it is anything but a traditional stock or company. There are no operating fundamentals of note. Rather, it is more like an exponentially leveraged ETF for Bitcoin (BitComp).

The risk for holding Strategy, Inc. (MSTR) continues to build. Supposedly, Strategy Inc. has an average buy-in price of $74,000 for its Bitcoin holdings. When Bitcoin was north of $100k, that sounded good. Not so good now, after Bitcoin touched $80k in trading today.

Furthermore, it is approaching that price from the wrong direction. There is not much visible support chart-wise for Bitcoin below $76.000. And, if Bitcoin's history of price volatility is any indication, then the price could drop as low as $25-50k. There is no way to know for sure, but recent price action is neither favorable nor constructive. 

The situation is similar for Strategy (MSTR), but the downside risk is much greater. The likelihood of a hugely greater payoff has become increasingly remote. 

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