Real Lumber Prices

PPI indicates they are down:

Figure 1: PPI for lumber, softwood (blue), and for lumber (brown), both 1982=100, deflated by CPI to 2020$, both on log scales. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. 

The lumber real PPI is essentially back at the levels at the 2018M06 peak.

Front-month futures through September suggest flat PPI come October’s data.

Figure 2: PPI for lumber (blue, left log scale), and front month futures, lagged one month (brown, right log scale). NBER recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED,, NBER and author’s calculations.

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