Rainfall Is Critical. The Corn & Ethanol Report

green grass

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

 

We kickoff the day with Fed Bullard Speech at 4:15 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 7:00 A.M., Export Sales at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Fed Mester Speech at 12;40 P.M., Cattle On feed and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M.

On the Corn front, the Drought Monitor continues to show expanding drought across the Midwest. The next couple of weeks are extremely crucial to have rainfall on the crops in most need.  The yield potential ratings are dropping like a rock. Crop ratings for this time of year are poor, in my estimation, and continue to decline. Rain is forecasted in the Midwest over the weekend, but will it be a saturated fall to help soil moisture or another fly-by-night that will only produce trickles? Next Friday we have the all-important Planting Acreage number coupled with Grain Stocks which will be a game-changer if it can produce soil moisture to a thirsty crop. And if next week’s report sheds any light on what degree the crops are facing. We will have the July WASDE data on July 12th.  We do have declines again in volume and open interest keeping volatility in full swing. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 643 ½ which is 17 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 657 ½ to 641.

On the Ethanol front, production has continued to move forward in production margins with strong gasoline consumption. The EIA numbers showed that blenders are trying to keep pace with demand this summertime driving season. However, at this pace, the numbers will eventually show shortages before or after the 4th of July traffic. This market, like any other market, will seek its own level, regardless of how much we tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Cause and Effect will dominate this market of pain at the pump, and Mother Nature is in the control. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.


More By This Author:

Concerns & Fears With Weather & Yields. The Corn & Ethanol Report
Drought Monitor Rises Corn Crop Yield Ratings Plunge. The Corn & Ethanol Report
Active Start To Hurricane Season. The Corn & Ethanol Report

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