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The day was kicked off with data for the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and the MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M. Following that was the data for the Core Inflation Rate month-over-month & year-over-year, Inflation Rate month-over-month & year-over-year, CPI, and the CPI sa at 7:30 A.M. 

Next was the Fed Bowman Speech at 7:45 A.M., followed by Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 A.M., API Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., and the 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. The Fed Goolsbee Speech then followed at 11:45 A.M., with the 10-Year Note Auction trailing afterward at 12:00 P.M. The FOMC Minutes and Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M. will be seen next, followed by Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.

Welcome to the first day of 2024 in which most Midwest farmers can seed corn under the revenue insurance rules. April 10 is often is the first day of spring in which widespread Midwest corn seeding can commence. Weather and soil moisture permitting, Midwest farmers will become more active in seeding spring crops from this day forward.

USDA, Brazil CONAB, and WASDE will release their April crop estimates tomorrow. Garnering keen attention will be the size of the ’24 Brazilian corn/soybean crops. In March, there was an 8.2 MMT’s spread between CONAB and WASDE soybean crop estimates, which has a sizable impact on 2-24/25 US soybean export forecasts. It’s the direction of the WASDE Brazilian soybean/corn estimates in particular which will drive the post-report reaction tomorrow.

Choppy grain action has prevailed since late February, when longer-term market lows were scored. Brazil has harvested more than 80% of its soybean crop, while world wheat prices have been turning upwards. The April USDA  reports are unlikely to end the bull & bear debate on South American crop sizes.

However, Brazilian soybean fob offers at Paranaqua are rising and positive through August at $.40/Bu over. A year ago, for the May shipment, Paranaqua soybeans were offered at $1.45 under today’s $.05 over – which is a big $1.50/Bu difference. As I mentioned before, I expect to see choppy trading as the bulls & bears duke it out with managed funds reshuffling their large net short position.

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