The precipice of risk has been sidestepped again, although the proximity of how many things evolve is barely grasped at this stage.

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That relates to the Ukraine-Russian conflict, supply-chain issues, an expected Oil sell-off if things moved toward a ceasefire, and then there's the Fed. The latter will learn that rates and policies are secondary to geopolitical news in a scenario like this which is primarily supply-side inflation, not lack of demand.

The market rallied on 'peace breaking-out' hopes, bounced a bit but generally holds traction, even as nobody knows how things will sort out, or precisely what the end-game is for Russia and Ukraine. 

However an idea of not joining the bearish course in recent days was just that ‘peace might break out’, as can still be forthcoming based on rumors that are now news, and the idea of Zelensky and Putin meeting, which on the surface seems crazy. One would also suspect Putin would press for sanctions relief ‘if’ he stops the murderous attacks, but to me you sort of should resist rewarding an aggressor in such a manner, but stranger things have happened.

Either way the edge comes off inflation, with Oil backing-off, and of course things could backslide, hence the duration or this rebound is rather difficult or impossible to pinpoint at this time. Global supply chains aren’t going to be fixed quickly, there is almost famine risk later this year, and that alone is a reason for Russia and Ukraine to call a halt to the insanity. They need income from agriculture, and the world needs certain exports. Putin or no Putin.