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Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets closed mixed again yesterday and held the recent trading range. Winter Wheat markets were a little lower and Minneapolis was a little higher. Last week, USDA cut back on world ending stocks due to weather problems in major Wheat growing areas of the world. The war in Ukraine continues with Russia still bombing Ukrainian ports near the Black Sea and Danube River, but there was no real news from the front over the last few days. Ukraine is now trying to load ships and exporting through the Black Sea and some ships have in fact been loaded at those ports. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is getting quite a bit of business. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business due to the higher Russian prices. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and Ukraine is still exporting, although mostly over land through the EU at higher costs. Ukraine has lately shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. 6

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 541 December, with resistance at 600, 603, and 606 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 645, 630, and 624 December, with resistance at 693, 703, and 712 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 711, 708, and 704 December, and resistance is at 736, 752, and 766 December.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in quiet trading. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of bad weather in some production areas.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1568, 1560, and 1555 November and resistance is at 1609, 1629, and 1637 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.06 14.48 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 22.59 15.08 0.00
Brokens 13.95 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

Corn And Oats

General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday after another day of consolidation trading. Ideas are that there will be enough Corn to meet any demand. Oats closed a little lower. The Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is over and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina. Southern Brazil is too wet.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 487, 483, and 478 December, and resistance is at 499, 507, and 527 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 381 December. Support is at 367, 360, and 354 December, and resistance is at 395, 401, and 410 December.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday, but Soybean Oil was lower. Soybeans ending stocks were left unchanged at 220 million bushels as USDA left ending stocks at what appears to be minimum levels for them Additional buying was noted as Brazil remains hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina is also dry. Initial yield results for the new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and below normal temperatures for the Midwest for the first half of the week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month.

Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1310 and 1346 November. Support is at 1289, 1274, and 1251 November, and resistance is at 1307, 1327, and 1346 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 393.00, 387.00, and 385.00 December, and resistance is at 402.00, 408.00, and 414.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5690 and 5930 December. Support is at 5410, 5360, and 5210 December, with resistance at 5640, 5870, and 5970 December.

Canola & Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today based on stronger demand indications from India and China. There were reports of a weaker Ringgit as well. Traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future, but supplies appear to be very strong for now. Canola closed a little lower yesterday but remains in a trading range. Futures appear to have failed at strong resistance levels on the daily charts yesterday. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crops have been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition. Harvest has been active and speculators were selling.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 701.00, 694.00, and 684.00 November, with resistance at 729.00, 734.00, and 736.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3700, and 3640 January, with resistance at 3880, 3900, and 3950 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 83 Dec 140 Dec
110 Dec
82 Nov

November
79 Dec 140 Dec
110 Dec 82 Nov

December
78 Dec
140 Dec 110 Dec 70 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 830.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 832.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 847.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 847.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 837.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 840.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 855.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 855.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 785.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 765.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,780.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 229.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7425)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 248,722 lots, or 1.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,938 4,957 4,894 4,945 4,995 4,932 -63 96,044 63,114
Jan-24 4,914 4,924 4,848 4,893 4,967 4,887 -80 110,713 126,359
Mar-24 4,919 4,919 4,823 4,859 4,937 4,858 -79 35,215 18,453
May-24 4,935 4,935 4,862 4,897 4,961 4,898 -63 3,533 9,020
Jul-24 4,915 4,915 4,840 4,873 4,922 4,873 -49 1,854 3,557
Sep-24 4,877 4,878 4,828 4,853 4,900 4,857 -43 1,363 1,596
Corn
Turnover: 679,406 lots, or 17.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,540 2,541 2,504 2,508 2,548 2,524 -24 81,891 116,456
Jan-24 2,502 2,506 2,483 2,486 2,511 2,495 -16 422,363 817,151
Mar-24 2,511 2,511 2,489 2,492 2,515 2,500 -15 95,303 233,141
May-24 2,545 2,547 2,530 2,533 2,551 2,539 -12 32,349 215,863
Jul-24 2,559 2,559 2,541 2,542 2,560 2,551 -9 42,702 115,584
Sep-24 2,566 2,567 2,553 2,555 2,571 2,561 -10 4,798 8,351
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,581,921 lots, or 60.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,148 4,233 4,140 4,156 4,119 4,180 61 77,481 129,437
Dec-23 3,976 4,055 3,975 3,990 3,968 4,012 44 14,851 62,969
Jan-24 3,900 3,956 3,892 3,893 3,888 3,918 30 1,149,446 1,438,186
Mar-24 3,645 3,699 3,641 3,654 3,644 3,667 23 26,566 62,243
May-24 3,387 3,421 3,380 3,395 3,387 3,401 14 228,495 716,324
Jul-24 3,378 3,405 3,368 3,379 3,376 3,384 8 36,296 477,710
Aug-24 3,451 3,479 3,446 3,452 3,453 3,459 6 19,254 69,004
Sep-24 3,430 3,454 3,420 3,430 3,426 3,436 10 29,532 141,134
Palm Oil
Turnover: 749,443 lots, or 5.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-23 – – – 7,130 7,130 7,130 0 0 838
Nov-23 7,296 7,370 7,280 7,310 7,296 7,322 26 7,474 12,506
Dec-23 7,324 7,404 7,300 7,346 7,322 7,362 40 9,861 33,131
Jan-24 7,318 7,422 7,304 7,362 7,324 7,366 42 660,461 425,847
Feb-24 7,342 7,434 7,322 7,376 7,336 7,384 48 6,981 23,127
Mar-24 7,362 7,460 7,348 7,398 7,362 7,414 52 6,564 18,316
Apr-24 7,382 7,470 7,362 7,414 7,370 7,424 54 3,283 8,173
May-24 7,376 7,456 7,348 7,398 7,358 7,408 50 53,904 94,756
Jun-24 7,314 7,410 7,306 7,358 7,316 7,362 46 97 804
Jul-24 7,256 7,354 7,254 7,294 7,266 7,304 38 131 1,059
Aug-24 7,212 7,274 7,212 7,226 7,186 7,242 56 54 1,737
Sep-24 7,104 7,192 7,102 7,150 7,108 7,152 44 633 1,603
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 980,674 lots, or 79.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,200 8,328 8,166 8,198 8,200 8,258 58 23,882 25,973
Dec-23 8,140 8,258 8,126 8,144 8,146 8,202 56 4,648 35,176
Jan-24 8,068 8,186 8,050 8,066 8,070 8,120 50 857,439 543,770
Mar-24 7,880 8,002 7,858 7,914 7,880 7,948 68 4,706 29,853
May-24 7,646 7,782 7,644 7,712 7,656 7,734 78 79,642 155,409
Jul-24 7,588 7,702 7,570 7,644 7,578 7,654 76 7,868 117,997
Aug-24 7,530 7,632 7,524 7,582 7,538 7,592 54 1,423 25,977
Sep-24 7,440 7,524 7,426 7,482 7,432 7,490 58 1,066 5,754
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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