Grains Report - Friday, October 13

wheat field

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2023 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn Production 15,064.0 15,100 14,950-15,284 15,134
Corn Yield 173.0 173.5 172.0-175.5 173.8
Harvested Acres 87.1 86.7 82.1-87.1 87.1
Soybean Production 4,104.0 4,132 4,079-4,204 4,146
Soybean Yield 49.6 49.9 49.3-50.8 50.1
Harvested Acres 82.8 82.8 82.5-82.8 82.8
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 2,111.0 2,145 1,926-2,389 2,221
Soybeans 220.0 236 200-267 220
Wheat 670.0 646 582-688 615
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 298.1 298.4 295.3-301.0 299.5
Soybeans 101.9 103.3 102.6-104.0 103.0
Wheat 267.6 267.1 267.0-267.4 267.1
2023-24
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 312.4 313.0 309.0-318.4 314.0
Soybeans 115.6 119.6 116.3-122.0 119.3
Wheat 258.1 258.8 257.0-261.0 258.6

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Oct 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22
Soybeans 220.0 268.0 274.0:168.24 170.86 154.25:399.50 370.24 360.43
Brazil na na na: 97.50 95.50 79.06:163.00 156.00 130.50
Argentina na na na: 4.60 4.10 2.86: 48.00 25.00 43.90
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.10: 20.50 20.28 16.40
Soyoil 1,736 1,761 1,991: 11.70 11.36 12.26: 61.75 58.90 59.27
Corn 2,111 1,361 1,377:196.25 181.01 206.59: 1,214 1,155 1,219
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.00:277.00 277.20 272.55
Argentina na na na: 41.00 23.00 34.69: 55.00 34.00 49.50
S.Africa na na na: 3.40 3.80 3.65: 16.80 17.10 16.14
Cotton(a) 2.80 4.25 4.05: 43.24 37.00 43.24:112.60 116.27 114.65
All Wheat 670 582 698:206.26 221.60 202.76:783.43 789.50 781.01
China na na na: 0.90 0.95 0.88:137.00 137.72 136.95
European
Union na na na: 37.50 35.08 31.93:134.00 134.19 138.16
Canada na na na: 23.00 25.75 15.12: 31.00 34.34 22.42
Argentina na na na: 11.50 4.50 16.00: 16.50 12.55 22.15
Australia na na na: 17.50 32.50 27.51: 24.50 39.69 36.24
Russia na na na: 50.00 47.50 33.00: 85.00 92.00 75.16
Ukraine na na na: 11.00 17.12 18.84: 22.50 21.50 33.01
Sorghum 29.0 24.0 47.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 69.0 58.0 42.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 39.0 35.0 33.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 41.8 30.3 39.7: 52.33 54.70 56.90:518.14 513.68 514.35

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 13
For the week ended Oct 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2023-2024 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2022-23.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 652.0 -0.2 10090.5 11127.0 3888.0 58.2
hrw 149.1 0.0 1812.5 3141.9 735.7 11.2
srw 304.7 0.0 2352.7 2068.0 825.2 47.0
hrs 92.6 -0.2 3519.9 3221.1 1295.6 0.0
white 105.5 0.0 2124.9 2528.2 862.5 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 280.4 167.8 168.9 0.0
corn 910.4 87.4 15295.0 13419.9 11811.2 859.0
soybeans 1056.8 0.0 19509.0 28188.5 16012.6 0.0
soymeal 496.4-a 0.0 4579.4 3088.4 4453.0 1.7
soyoil 10.8-b 0.0 17.2 20.0 16.9 0.0
upland cotton 43.4 0.0 5823.8 8285.4 4217.0 405.2
pima cotton 2.5 0.0 81.8 103.4 40.6 1.5
sorghum 2.0 0.0 2296.3 298.9 1995.5 180.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 15.5 15.9 0.0
rice 66.1 0.0 869.0 511.0 513.4 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-5, which resulted
in a net increase of 60.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes
436.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2022-23.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-5, which resulted
in a net decrease of -5.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
16.1 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2022-23.

 

Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher but held the recent trading range. The moves came as USDA cut back on demand for US Wheat and increased ending stocks estimates more than anticipated by the trade but also cut back on world ending stocks. The war in Ukraine continues with Russia still bombing Ukrainian ports near the Black sea and Danube River. Ukraine is now trying to load ships and exporting through the Black Sea and some ships have in fact been loaded at those ports. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is getting quite a bit of business. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business due to the higher Russian prices. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and Ukraine is still exporting, although mostly over land through the EU at higher costs. Ukraine has lately shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. China bought 181,000- tons of US SRW.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 552, 541, and 534 December, with resistance at 583, 600, and 607 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 663, 656, and 650 November, with resistance at 703, 712, and 716 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 712, 708, and 704 December, and resistance is at 752, 766, and 777 December.

 

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged in response to the USDA reports that showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of bad weather in some production areas.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1565, 1560, and 1555 November and resistance is at 1609, 1629, and 1637 November.

 

Corn And Oats

General Comments: Corn closed higher as USDA crop reports that showed less than expected US production and ending stocks estimates. Oats closed lower in response to its own USDA estimates. The Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 487, 483, and 478 December, and resistance is at 499, 507, and 527 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 381 December. Support is at 380, 375, and 339 December, and resistance is at 401, 410, and 418 December.

 

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to the USDA reports that showed less than expected production and ending stocks levels for Soybean. Additional buying was noted as Brazil remains hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina is also dry.. Initial yield results for the new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and below normal temperatures for the Midwest for the first half of the week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal and 117,300 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1310 and 1346 November. Support is at 1274, 1257, and 1246 November, and resistance is at 1307, 1322, and 1346 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 391.00, 377.00, and 371.00 December, and resistance is at 397.00, 402.00, and 508.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5180 December. Support is at 5210, 5140, and 4990 December, with resistance at 5510, 5640, and 5870 December.

 

Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on weakness in other vegetable oils and petroleum markets. Traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future, but supplies appear to be very strong for now. Canola closed a little lower yesterdaay. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crops have been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition. Harvest is active and speculators were selling.

Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 694.00, 684.00, and 679.00 November, with resistance at 716.00, 724.00, and 729.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3460, and 3430 December, with resistance at 3640, 3750, and 3840 December.

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm-Oil Exports Rose 29.6%, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated to have risen 29.6% on month to 395,890 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct. 1-10 Sept. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 128,310 83,409
RBD Palm Oil 22,715 7,450
RBD Palm Stearin 23,030 25,825
Crude Palm Oil 147,885 60,415
Total* 395,890 305,594
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm-Oil Exports Fell 2.1%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports were down 2.1% on month at 1.20 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,829,434 1,753,472 Up 4.33%
Palm Oil Exports 1,196,113 1,221,848 Dn 2.11%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 80,106 91,866 Dn 12.8%
Palm Oil Imports 49,054 110,621 Dn 55.66%
Closing Stocks 2,313,569 2,110,980 Up 9.6%
Crude Palm Oil 1,371,016 1,200,077 Up 14.24%
Processed Palm Oil 942,553 910,903 Up 3.47%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

\
US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 93 Dec 140 Dec
110 Dec
80 Nov

November
89 Dec 140 Dec
110 Dec 80 Nov

December
85 Dec
140 Dec 105 Dec 72 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 827.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 827.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 837.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 840.00 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 842.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 835.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 835.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 845.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 847.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 780.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 770.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,720.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 227.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.725)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 180,375 lots, or 9.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 5,064 5,084 5,023 5,053 5,041 5,050 9 112,744 80,811
Jan-24 5,036 5,067 5,018 5,043 5,032 5,035 3 41,544 76,852
Mar-24 4,985 5,031 4,984 5,004 4,998 4,998 0 23,734 9,976
May-24 5,038 5,050 4,999 5,023 5,016 5,018 2 1,696 6,889
Jul-24 4,993 5,008 4,958 4,985 4,988 4,973 -15 621 2,006
Sep-24 4,955 4,979 4,937 4,956 4,956 4,954 -2 36 201
Corn
Turnover: 545,542 lots, or 13.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,586 2,590 2,578 2,589 2,584 2,584 0 133,504 194,301
Jan-24 2,532 2,550 2,528 2,541 2,539 2,537 -2 282,951 758,631
Mar-24 2,536 2,551 2,533 2,545 2,542 2,540 -2 67,908 225,623
May-24 2,566 2,576 2,563 2,570 2,568 2,570 2 26,346 189,174
Jul-24 2,574 2,584 2,573 2,579 2,577 2,577 0 33,119 106,510
Sep-24 2,585 2,591 2,581 2,588 2,586 2,585 -1 1,714 5,422
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,641,668 lots, or 62.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,066 4,126 4,039 4,078 4,043 4,088 45 135,549 154,174
Dec-23 3,908 3,995 3,893 3,957 3,891 3,946 55 24,835 62,372
Jan-24 3,818 3,892 3,803 3,873 3,802 3,856 54 1,134,346 1,440,339
Mar-24 3,591 3,655 3,586 3,647 3,586 3,635 49 7,330 57,877
May-24 3,355 3,401 3,346 3,393 3,347 3,376 29 223,620 699,560
Jul-24 3,331 3,384 3,331 3,375 3,333 3,361 28 52,347 475,886
Aug-24 3,409 3,461 3,409 3,455 3,407 3,436 29 20,991 69,954
Sep-24 3,429 3,429 3,380 3,426 3,377 3,407 30 42,650 133,013
Palm Oil
Turnover: 767,667 lots, or 5.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-23 – – – 7,130 7,130 7,130 0 0 838
Nov-23 7,170 7,244 7,112 7,236 7,092 7,184 92 21,648 19,270
Dec-23 7,198 7,280 7,138 7,274 7,104 7,212 108 10,127 32,326
Jan-24 7,176 7,280 7,116 7,272 7,082 7,194 112 666,354 442,516
Feb-24 7,194 7,288 7,128 7,286 7,094 7,198 104 7,447 20,405
Mar-24 7,190 7,310 7,152 7,302 7,116 7,230 114 5,609 17,537
Apr-24 7,182 7,310 7,150 7,308 7,106 7,218 112 4,078 6,875
May-24 7,178 7,302 7,138 7,294 7,094 7,220 126 50,864 89,814
Jun-24 7,150 7,270 7,124 7,270 7,060 7,226 166 254 775
Jul-24 7,088 7,216 7,074 7,216 7,020 7,158 138 352 938
Aug-24 7,022 7,150 7,020 7,146 6,988 7,102 114 182 1,707
Sep-24 6,986 7,076 6,970 7,076 6,936 7,024 88 752 1,520
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 744,844 lots, or 58.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,050 8,176 8,016 8,158 7,954 8,100 146 24,879 42,124
Dec-23 7,998 8,120 7,958 8,106 7,918 8,068 150 1,112 33,945
Jan-24 7,906 8,036 7,856 8,022 7,806 7,948 142 635,603 548,557
Mar-24 7,686 7,848 7,670 7,820 7,620 7,780 160 2,304 29,789
May-24 7,466 7,626 7,448 7,614 7,398 7,532 134 69,733 145,292
Jul-24 7,400 7,554 7,386 7,546 7,342 7,464 122 7,478 111,420
Aug-24 7,388 7,502 7,368 7,498 7,332 7,442 110 1,859 25,006
Sep-24 7,298 7,398 7,274 7,392 7,254 7,334 80 1,876 5,538
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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