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Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower and trends have turned down again on the daily charts for all three markets, Indications are that some ships are moving from Ukraine through the Black Sea with grain cargoes. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 550 and 515 September. Support is at 564, 559, and 552 September, with resistance at 584, 598, and 621 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 704 and 672 September. Support is at 708, 702, and 696 September, with resistance at 736, 746, and 762 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 754 and 735 September. Support is at 754, 740, and 734 September, and resistance is at 773, 790, and 803 September.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed much higher yesterday on ideas of bad production conditions even as the US harvest expands. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports over the weekend that caused Indian exporters to cancel contracts to sell 500,000 tons. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1570, 1552, and 1540 September and resistance is at 1603, 1620, and 1632 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 30
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.85 14.98 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.37 15.60 0.00
Brokens 14.43 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

Corn and Oats

General Comments: Corn was lower in response to the Monday USDA reports that showed less than expected crop deterioration. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue and the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the complete tour. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 14.96 billion bushels with a yield of 172 bu/acre Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 493, 495, and 508 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 479, 452, and 439 September, and resistance is at 494, 500, and 506 September.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on less than expected crop deterioration shown by USDA in its Monday reports. Good crops were seen by the Pro Farmer tour last week and ideas are that stressful conditions are likely to persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 4.11 billion bushels with a yield of 49.7 bu/acre Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 266,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1415 and 1465 September. Support is at 1387, 1364, and 1338 September, and resistance is at 1401, 1420, and 1440 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 406.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 434.00, 445.00, and 442.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6310, and 6210 September, with resistance at 6740, 6950, and 7000 September.

Canola and Palm OilANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. The private sources reported that the export pace is now behind that of last month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was higher on Chicago price action. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 859.00, and 854.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 110 Dec 115 Sep
65 Sep
140 Nov

October
94 Dec 130 Dec
80 Dec 115 Nov

November
92 Dec
140 Dec 95 Dec 107 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 872.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 897.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 917.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 880.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 905.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 925.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 825.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 825.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,880.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 244.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6412)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,508 lots, or 7.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,240 5,279 5,230 5,264 5,272 5,254 -18 3,210 16,660
Nov-23 5,230 5,278 5,211 5,267 5,274 5,250 -24 121,534 145,231
Jan-24 5,168 5,208 5,148 5,194 5,201 5,183 -18 14,407 43,667
Mar-24 5,103 5,140 5,090 5,131 5,136 5,124 -12 729 6,501
May-24 5,101 5,144 5,092 5,125 5,134 5,124 -10 575 3,347
Jul-24 5,056 5,098 5,056 5,089 5,088 5,083 -5 53 313
Corn
Turnover: 670,690 lots, or 18.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,812 2,820 2,807 2,815 2,812 2,814 2 7,175 26,332
Nov-23 2,727 2,734 2,714 2,731 2,726 2,724 -2 512,266 724,842
Jan-24 2,646 2,651 2,636 2,650 2,642 2,644 2 82,319 400,201
Mar-24 2,618 2,625 2,610 2,622 2,617 2,617 0 48,602 118,402
May-24 2,634 2,637 2,623 2,632 2,631 2,629 -2 13,980 82,069
Jul-24 2,623 2,630 2,615 2,627 2,626 2,622 -4 6,348 19,794
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,644,374 lots, or 67.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,915 4,944 4,902 4,916 4,940 4,917 -23 34,899 41,065
Nov-23 4,637 4,660 4,600 4,641 4,665 4,631 -34 181,465 346,405
Dec-23 4,333 4,348 4,241 4,328 4,339 4,323 -16 24,854 56,625
Jan-24 4,140 4,159 4,111 4,136 4,148 4,134 -14 1,149,074 1,824,983
Mar-24 3,816 3,833 3,783 3,798 3,830 3,809 -21 14,950 58,430
May-24 3,501 3,536 3,501 3,519 3,526 3,518 -8 184,531 487,854
Jul-24 3,450 3,479 3,449 3,467 3,471 3,465 -6 38,653 415,518
Aug-24 3,497 3,514 3,490 3,500 3,504 3,499 -5 15,948 30,935
Palm Oil
Turnover: 873,711 lots, or 6.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,782 7,846 7,766 7,790 7,794 7,794 0 7,406 7,484
Oct-23 7,812 7,880 7,774 7,808 7,814 7,824 10 23,930 48,842
Nov-23 7,808 7,906 7,800 7,830 7,834 7,854 20 19,333 58,027
Dec-23 7,824 7,904 7,800 7,832 7,824 7,852 28 12,571 33,569
Jan-24 7,764 7,882 7,764 7,804 7,774 7,824 50 757,410 459,534
Feb-24 7,764 7,864 7,762 7,792 7,790 7,808 18 7,924 17,636
Mar-24 7,750 7,846 7,748 7,788 7,776 7,792 16 6,553 16,252
Apr-24 7,726 7,812 7,720 7,760 7,742 7,764 22 2,061 3,304
May-24 7,706 7,768 7,648 7,730 7,658 7,722 64 36,255 58,772
Jun-24 7,608 7,674 7,604 7,660 7,594 7,638 44 129 733
Jul-24 7,528 7,600 7,520 7,600 7,488 7,556 68 111 979
Aug-24 7,468 7,538 7,468 7,538 7,430 7,500 70 28 89
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,203,637 lots, or 10.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,704 8,826 8,704 8,716 8,794 8,748 -46 5,455 7,956
Nov-23 8,696 8,834 8,674 8,716 8,764 8,744 -20 55,905 102,127
Dec-23 8,594 8,710 8,552 8,594 8,632 8,612 -20 7,242 36,010
Jan-24 8,438 8,570 8,412 8,460 8,456 8,486 30 1,077,596 654,422
Mar-24 8,192 8,266 8,152 8,194 8,146 8,198 52 2,331 32,873
May-24 7,920 8,040 7,920 7,998 7,926 7,990 64 36,942 74,436
Jul-24 7,866 7,956 7,862 7,928 7,832 7,912 80 12,249 112,857
Aug-24 7,884 7,972 7,872 7,940 7,842 7,928 86 5,917 16,931
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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