Grains Report - Wednesday, Aug. 24
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and futures have crawled back into the recent trading ranges after the moves lower late last week. A drop in the US crop condition ratings was supportive to futures prices. The markets remain affected by the war in Ukraine and the chances for increased exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Those chances are very strong right now. Russia reports that it has produced a big crop and has reduced export taxes recently in an effort to get Wheat ales on the books. Ukraine has taken advantage of the shipping corridor agreement with the UN and Russia and has been shipping Corn and Wheat. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Dry weather is affecting the Indian production as well..
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 757, 744, and 727 September, with resistance at 824, 846, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 847, 830, and 820 September, with resistance at 915, 948, and 978 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 880, 865, and 852 September, and resistance is at 947, 956, and 999 September.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher along with other ag markets yesterday. The Texas harvest is in full force and yield reports have been variable as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1719, 1695, and 1685 September and resistance is at 1745, 1754, and 1758 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on lower than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA on Monday as well as some bad production data in South Dakota that was released by Pro Farmer. South Dakota yield potential was rated as below last year and the five year average. The crop tour yesterday rated Nebraska and Indiana at below last year and the average as well. The eastern leg of the tour found above average yield potential in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 710 September. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 632 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 461, 470, and 477 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were higher yesterday on worse than expected crop condition ratings posted by USDA as well as in part due to the crop tour results from the Pro Farmer crop tour. The tour does not predict yields for Soybeans but it does count pods in a 3 foot by one foot rectangle. The counts showed potential for poor crops in South Dakota but above average crops in Ohio and parts of eastern Indiana. Tour participants rated the Soybeans counts in Nebraska as below last year but in line with the five year average. Indian counts were below last year and the five year average. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans for the coming crop year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. However, Brazil is still exporting Soybeans so the US demand could be weaker.
Overnight News: China bought 517,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1612 September. Support is at 1557, 1537, and 1521 September, and resistance is at 1584, 1600, and 1607 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 488.00 September. Support is at 461.00, 456.00, and 451.00 September, and resistance is at 471.00 474.00, and 480.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7710 September. Support is at 6790, 6540, and 6480 September, with resistance at 7090, 7250, and 7290 September.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was yesterday. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days but the rains are bringing some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 879.00, 958.00, and 1091.00 November. Support is at 819.00, 795.00, and 779.00 November, with resistance at 856.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4100, 4000, and 3980 November, with resistance at 4380, 4500, and 4840 November.
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