Grains Report - Wednesday, Aug. 11

General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed higher on stronger world markets. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks and Minneapolis remains in a trading range. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 708, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 730, 739, and 749 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 6702, 688, and 678 September, with resistance at 719, 724, and 745 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 888, 879, and 859 September, and resistance is at 928, 945, and 954 September.

Image by tk tan from Pixabay

General Comments: Rice closed higher again as the harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana but has been slow in these areas due to rain showers in the region. Both areas have been wet and cloudy this season and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1362, 1387, and 1390 September. Support is at 1337, 1310, and 1308 September, with resistance at 1348, 1360, and 1368 September.

General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday and continues to trade inside a narrow trading range. Increased condition noted by USDA in the weekly crop updates was the main reason for the selling. The market is looking ahead to the USDA reports on Thursday that are expected to show yield potential for Corn and also increased ending stocks as demand has been less than expected in the last couple of months. Demand has improved in the past week, and the weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little lower on long liquidation before the USDA reports on Thursday. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 572 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 462, 450, and 448 September, and resistance is at 476, 482, and 488 September.

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was a little ;lower on more forecasts for good production and improved weather along with worries about weaker than expected demand. Trade ideas are that the US national yield can be 50 bushels per acre at minimum and production can be at least 4.2 billion bushels. Chart trends remain sideways or down in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but eastern Nebraska got very beneficial rain over the weekend.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1331, 1308, and 1296 September, and resistance is at 1358, 1366, and 1379 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 373.00 and 386.00 September. Support is at 354.00, 347.00, and 342.00 September, and resistance is at 365.00, 371.00, and 378.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with objectives of 5600 and 5000 September. Support is at 6010, 5940, and 5870 September, with resistance at 6240, 6310, and 6390 September.

General Comments: Palm Oil was sharply higher on supply concerns due to the release of the MPOB report. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower yesterday. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the forecast for this week have no chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 867.00, 859.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 902.00, 9306.00, and 932.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4170, 4090, and 4000 October, with resistance at 4370, 4480, and 4500 October.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.