Grains Report - Wednesday, April 3

General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday in rection to much improved crop condition ratings in the USDA reports that were released Monday afternoon. The USDA reports released Friday were considered friendly for Wheat prices, but futures closed mostly lower anyway and were led lower by Minneapolis. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. There are some ideas that the Spring Wheat planted area wa overstated and could be less in reality. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 572, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 594, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 620 and 597 May. Support is at 622, 616, and 610 May, and resistance is at 640, 647, and 660 May.

selective focus photo of wreath

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General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday and at new lows for the move. Trends are down in this market. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1600, 1588, and 1576 May and resistance is at 1649, 1678, and 1744 May.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. This might not be true as it is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now. USDA issued its first crop progress report for Corn yesterday. The USDA reports released on Friday showed inventories and planting ideas below trade expectations. USDA said that plantings should be just 90 million acres and that inventories are estimated at 8.347 billion bushels. The plantings intentions report was especially bullish for Corn prices. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might start next week. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have firmed a little bit in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 448, 459, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 349, 344, and 340 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports that showed slightly higher quarterly stocks and planting intentions when compared to expectations and on ideas of increased farm selling from Brazil. USDA said that the stocks were 1.845 billion bushels and that farmers would plant 86.5 million acres of Soybeans. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1211, 1217, and 1227 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4730, and 4690 May, with resistance at 4980, 5000, and 5030 May.

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on strong export data for the month from private sources. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Canola was higher yesterday in line with rallies in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Plam Oil. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4460 and 4650 June. Support is at 4300, 4270, and 4200 May, with resistance at 4400, 4430, and 4460 May.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Tuesday, April 2
Softs Report - Monday, April 1
Grains Report - Thursday, March 28

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