Grains Report - Thursday, March 28

selective focus photo of wreath

Photo by Evi Radauscher on Unsplash

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 28
For the week ended Mar 21, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 339.6 212.8 18731.6 17947.2 4711.9 1016.4
hrw 127.8 0.0 3614.1 4898.1 1055.0 145.1
srw 7.2 -54.5 4297.0 2789.4 1195.4 201.6
hrs 77.1 53.7 6356.0 5431.1 1466.9 275.6
white 127.4 213.7 3982.6 4460.4 923.7 337.3
durum 0.0 0.0 481.9 368.3 70.9 57.0
corn 1206.5 126.4 42903.2 35965.1 17525.1 1746.3
soybeans 263.9 120.0 40354.9 49760.9 4143.1 470.4
soymeal 127.3 1.2 10196.7 8764.5 3241.0 222.1
soyoil 6.0 0.0 80.4 76.0 45.1 7.5
upland cotton 98.2 72.2 10804.7 11460.4 4080.5 1062.8
pima cotton 13.5 0.0 270.0 174.6 74.4 3.3
sorghum 77.9 0.0 5024.3 1499.6 1263.4 0.0
barley -4.8 0.0 11.8 11.5 6.3 14.0
rice 62.1 12.0 2759.7 1584.8 624.1 12.0

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2024 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 23 Dec. 2023
Corn 8,439 8,129-8,700 7,396 12,169
Soybeans 1,832 1,740-1,986 1,687 3,000
Wheat 1,053 997-1,081 941 1,410
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 8,450 1,740 1,029
Allendale 8,129 1,986 1,047
Doane 8,436 1,840 1,050
Grain Cycles 8,475 1,795 997
Linn Group 8,472 1,777 1,069
Sid Love Consulting 8,568 1,864 1,076
Marex 8,700 1,856 1,080
Midland Research 8,530 1,765 1,065
Northstar 8,500 1,805 1,040
Ocean State Research 8,445 1,929 1,081
Prime Ag 8,350 1,825 1,025
Risk Mgmt Commodities 8,245 1,777 1,071
RJ O’Brien 8,438 1,852 1,078
StoneX 8,409 1,853 1,062
U.S. Commodities 8,380 1,840 1,045
Vantage RM 8,500 1,800 1,030

DJ Survey: 2024 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2023
Corn 92.032 90.0-93.8 94.641
Soybeans 86.309 84.3-88.0 83.600
All Wheat 47.655 46.6-50.0 49.575
Winter Wheat 35.131 34.0-38.4 36.699
Spring Wheat 10.893 10.1-11.3 11.200
Durum Wheat 1.669 1.1-1.9 1.676
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
AgriSompo North America 90.8 87.6 47.0 35.3 10.1 1.6
Allendale 93.5 85.8 47.6 34.7 11.2 1.7
Doane 91.8 86.8 47.1 34.4 10.9 1.8
Farm Futures 92.4 86.0 50.0 38.4 10.5 1.1
Grain Cycles 92.1 85.5 47.4 34.8 10.9 1.7
Linn Group 92.2 87.0 47.5 34.8 11.0 1.7
Sid Love Consulting 90.0 88.0 46.6 34.0 10.8 1.8
Marex 91.5 87.0 47.3 34.4 11.1 1.8
Midland Research 92.3 85.8 47.6 34.6 11.3 1.7
Midwest Market Solutions 93.8 84.3 49.8 36.8 11.1 1.9
Northstar 92.0 85.8 48.0 35.1 11.2 1.7
Ocean State Research 92.2 87.0 47.5 35.0 10.8 1.7
Prime Ag 92.5 86.5 47.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 91.0 86.5 47.8 35.5 10.7 1.6
RJ O’Brien 92.0 86.5 47.2 34.7 10.8 1.7
StoneX 92.1 85.6 47.0 34.7 10.5 1.7
U.S. Commodities 92.0 86.0 48.0 35.5 11.0 1.5
Vantage RM 92.5 86.0 47.5 34.6 11.2 1.7

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was mostly higher yesterday as the market continued to react to news reports of a dispute between the Russian government and a private exporter named Rif seen earlier in the week. There was also some short covering before the USDA report that will be released later this morning. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 560, 567, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 590, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 645, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 669, and 677 May.

 

RICE

General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and at new lows for the move. Trends are down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1648, 1636, and 1624 May and resistance is at 1744, 1751, and 1769 May.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday. Corn was weaker on ideas that the stocks report on Thursday will show ample supplies for this year and that the planting intentions report will show that ample supplies will likely continue well into next year. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might start next week. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 411 and 395 May. Support is at 422, 408, and 406 May, and resistance is at 432, 438, and 441 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

 

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday before the USDA reports are released later today. Some buying was tied to forecasts for very dry weather in southern Brazil that could hurt developing crops. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. \Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1217, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4630 and 4430 May. Support is at 4690, 4640, and 4550 May, with resistance at 4840, 4910, and 4980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday and rends started to turn down on the daily reports. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 619.00, 610.00, and 602.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4070 and 3920 June. Support is at 4130, 4050, and 4000 May, with resistance at 4220, 4280, and 4310 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 123,259 lots, or .59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,750 4,770 4,733 4,759 4,733 4,754 21 99,191 101,737
Jul-24 4,729 4,753 4,716 4,747 4,713 4,737 24 11,396 20,840
Sep-24 4,709 4,730 4,693 4,720 4,692 4,711 19 11,902 19,803
Nov-24 4,646 4,673 4,646 4,661 4,645 4,660 15 334 2,933
Jan-25 4,607 4,648 4,607 4,637 4,620 4,634 14 369 3,574
Mar-25 4,610 4,626 4,605 4,609 4,603 4,617 14 67 125
Corn
Turnover: 811,181 lots, or 19.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,390 2,415 2,385 2,408 2,387 2,400 13 610,585 818,232
Jul-24 2,410 2,437 2,410 2,429 2,412 2,424 12 114,815 335,672
Sep-24 2,423 2,440 2,423 2,430 2,425 2,431 6 58,235 243,280
Nov-24 2,402 2,414 2,395 2,399 2,406 2,404 -2 15,963 32,955
Jan-25 2,387 2,397 2,382 2,386 2,389 2,388 -1 11,333 36,624
Mar-25 2,392 2,401 2,386 2,391 2,389 2,391 2 250 555
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,238,625 lots, or 72.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,260 3,269 3,199 3,224 3,254 3,229 -25 1,292,454 1,057,619
Jul-24 3,252 3,263 3,201 3,223 3,245 3,224 -21 47,925 88,001
Aug-24 3,326 3,333 3,275 3,292 3,311 3,302 -9 7,137 31,949
Sep-24 3,312 3,325 3,265 3,283 3,301 3,293 -8 830,807 1,339,912
Nov-24 3,288 3,304 3,249 3,269 3,279 3,271 -8 9,997 39,628
Dec-24 3,306 3,322 3,270 3,281 3,299 3,291 -8 1,178 9,939
Jan-25 3,285 3,300 3,246 3,261 3,275 3,271 -4 48,036 261,201
Mar-25 3,211 3,222 3,175 3,184 3,209 3,190 -19 1,091 4,712
Palm Oil
Turnover: 993,706 lots, or 79.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,186 8,232 8,114 8,194 8,338 8,192 -146 174 1,678
May-24 8,134 8,172 8,070 8,122 8,214 8,112 -102 828,084 437,383
Jun-24 7,868 7,894 7,804 7,868 7,946 7,844 -102 5,822 4,601
Jul-24 7,740 7,768 7,680 7,738 7,790 7,718 -72 635 3,503
Aug-24 7,618 7,656 7,570 7,626 7,698 7,612 -86 520 761
Sep-24 7,516 7,550 7,452 7,520 7,572 7,504 -68 147,669 235,825
Oct-24 7,422 7,450 7,376 7,430 7,480 7,410 -70 295 359
Nov-24 7,360 7,404 7,314 7,376 7,390 7,352 -38 304 458
Dec-24 7,306 7,368 7,266 7,338 7,346 7,324 -22 523 293
Jan-25 7,296 7,322 7,220 7,300 7,312 7,282 -30 9,539 21,787
Feb-25 7,214 7,292 7,206 7,266 7,296 7,248 -48 42 118
Mar-25 7,224 7,282 7,200 7,260 7,278 7,242 -36 99 160
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 599,320 lots, or 45.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,684 7,712 7,624 7,678 7,728 7,666 -62 415,602 495,895
Jul-24 7,632 7,662 7,580 7,646 7,680 7,626 -54 3,483 18,310
Aug-24 7,608 7,636 7,560 7,622 7,664 7,602 -62 530 4,356
Sep-24 7,574 7,608 7,524 7,586 7,626 7,570 -56 171,573 463,778
Nov-24 7,562 7,580 7,500 7,560 7,600 7,540 -60 709 7,756
Dec-24 7,580 7,626 7,554 7,598 7,646 7,596 -50 80 1,862
Jan-25 7,580 7,602 7,518 7,580 7,624 7,564 -60 7,303 51,696
Mar-25 7,528 7,558 7,494 7,548 7,590 7,516 -74 40 148
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


More By This Author:

Grains Report - Wednesday, March 27
Softs Report - Tuesday, March 26
Grains Report - Friday, March 22

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.