Softs Report - Tuesday, March 26

cottons on white surface

Photo by Marianne Krohn on Unsplash


General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday as ideas of weaker export demand went against improving ideas of demand potential from China. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid but reduced from previous levels in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and near-normal temperatures. Texas will have showers and rains and near to below-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.86 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 43,872 bales, from 41,756 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8520 and 7720 May. Support is at 90.80, 88.10, and 86.20 May, with resistance of 96.20, 97.70 and 98.40 May.


General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week despite reports of tight supplies. Florida said that Orange production would be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida the US and Brazil but are now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 361.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.


General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday and held to a trading range as the lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offers of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazilian producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Brazil's weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil's Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 0.560 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 188.12 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near-normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 179.00, and 178.00 May, and resistance is at 188.00, 190.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3420, 3520, and 3590 May. Support is at 3320, 3290, and 3220 May, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3490 May.


General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing some selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rain in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2030, and 1930 May and resistance is at 2230, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 654.00, 676.00, and 698.00 May. Support is at 619.00, 612.00, and 604.00 May, with resistance at 653.00, 663.00, and 670.00 May.


General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday and kept the incredible rally going on production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in the Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 4.119 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 9200 and 9970 May. Support is at 8420, 7710, and 6980 May, with resistance at 9720, 9840, and 9960 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6500, and 6040 May, with resistance at 8600, 8720, and 8840 May.

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